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TELEHEALTH 
APPLICATION OF 
PREDICTIVE 
ANALYTICS 
TO DRIVE PATIENT-CENTRIC 
CARE: 
A Solution for the 5% 
Problem 
Dr. Harold (Hank) Gardner 
HCMS Group CEO
The 5% Problem 
Population That Drives Over 50% of Health Benefit Costs 
• Risky overutilization of medications, testing, and specialists 
• Poor access & utilization of primary medical care & prevention 
• Significant utilization of lost time and workers’ compensation benefits 
• Typically at out-of-pocket maximum, so utilization is free 
• Higher utilization with family members 
• Over 20% migration into and out of the 5% each quarter 
5% of people driving 
56% of costs 
$ 
People 
#5PercentProblem
Human Capital Risk Index® (HUI) – Patent Pending 
Unique HUI Features: 
• Econometric 
(Versus Actuarial) 
• Predictive Index (Versus 
Lagging) 
• Person-Centric (Versus 
Disease-Centric) 
• Comprehensive – Medical, 
Pharmacy, and Lost Time 
• Uses More Than 300 
Weighted Risk Variables 
#HUIRisk
5% Person: Individual Health HUI Risk Profile 
VARIABLE WEIGHT 
Lung Cancer 4.50 
Asthma 0.15 
Respiratory Agent 0.05 
Anti-Infectives 0.05 
Short-Term Disability 1.35 
Workers’ 
2.25 
Compensation 
Total HUI Score 8.35 
#HUIRisk
Population Health Risk Analysis: Cost and HUI 
0.5 
Average HUI = 1.3 
1.4 
2.8 
5.2 
6.0 
5.0 
4.0 
3.0 
2.0 
1.0 
0.0 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
50% 30% 15% 5% 
Average HUI Score 
Population 
Percent of Population 
$465 
5% of people drive 
over 50% of costs 
Average Cost = $5,987 
$2,987 
$11,927 
$61,751 
$70,000 
$60,000 
$50,000 
$40,000 
$30,000 
$20,000 
$10,000 
$0 
1,200 
1,000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
50% 30% 15% 5% 
Average Medical Cost 
Population 
Percent of Population 
HUI risk is 
predictive of cost 
= Population = Population 
= Cost = HUI 
#PopulationHealth #HUIRisk
5% Population: Annual Health Benefits Utilization Analysis 
Bottom 95% Top 5% 
Medications 3 10 
Providers 4 11 
Diagnoses 4 13 
Tests 7 33 
Average Individual Integrated Cost $2,383 $40,729 
Human Capital Risk Index® (HUI) 0.86 4.06 
Health Risk Assessment (HRA) 
Self-Report Risk Score 
90.3 89.5 
#5PercentProblem #HUIRisk
5% Population: Disease Cluster Comorbidity Analysis 
#Comorbidities #HUIRisk
HUI Telehealth Clinical Decision Support Model 
Secure Internal Network 
Benefits Sponsor 
Clinical 
Service 
Documentation 
Patient-Centered Care 
Electronic 
Health 
Record 
Clinical Decision 
Support Provider 
Data 
• HR 
• Compensation 
• Medical 
• Pharmacy 
• Lost Time/STD 
• Workers’ Comp 
On-Demand 
Clinical Decision 
Support iHUI 
#HUIRisk 
HIPAA-Compliant 
Data 
Warehouse 
& 
Predictive 
Analytic HUI
Telehealth 5% Solution Results 
Right services to the right person at the right time 
Waste 
Specialty Care & 
Prescription 
Drug Cost 
Person-Centric 
Primary Care & 
Prevention 
Health As 
Human Capital 
Cost Savings & 
Resource for 
Worker Wages 
#HUIRisk
Learn More About HUI & The 5% Problem 
Visit Our Website And Subscribe To Our Blog 
www.hcmsgroup.com 
Visit Us On LinkedIn 
https://www.linkedin.com/company/hcms-group 
Follow Us On Twitter (@hcmsgroup) 
https://twitter.com/hcmsgroup

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Dr. Hank Gardner's Stanford MedX Human Capital Risk Index (HUI) Presentation -- HCMS Group

  • 1. TELEHEALTH APPLICATION OF PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS TO DRIVE PATIENT-CENTRIC CARE: A Solution for the 5% Problem Dr. Harold (Hank) Gardner HCMS Group CEO
  • 2. The 5% Problem Population That Drives Over 50% of Health Benefit Costs • Risky overutilization of medications, testing, and specialists • Poor access & utilization of primary medical care & prevention • Significant utilization of lost time and workers’ compensation benefits • Typically at out-of-pocket maximum, so utilization is free • Higher utilization with family members • Over 20% migration into and out of the 5% each quarter 5% of people driving 56% of costs $ People #5PercentProblem
  • 3. Human Capital Risk Index® (HUI) – Patent Pending Unique HUI Features: • Econometric (Versus Actuarial) • Predictive Index (Versus Lagging) • Person-Centric (Versus Disease-Centric) • Comprehensive – Medical, Pharmacy, and Lost Time • Uses More Than 300 Weighted Risk Variables #HUIRisk
  • 4. 5% Person: Individual Health HUI Risk Profile VARIABLE WEIGHT Lung Cancer 4.50 Asthma 0.15 Respiratory Agent 0.05 Anti-Infectives 0.05 Short-Term Disability 1.35 Workers’ 2.25 Compensation Total HUI Score 8.35 #HUIRisk
  • 5. Population Health Risk Analysis: Cost and HUI 0.5 Average HUI = 1.3 1.4 2.8 5.2 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 50% 30% 15% 5% Average HUI Score Population Percent of Population $465 5% of people drive over 50% of costs Average Cost = $5,987 $2,987 $11,927 $61,751 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 50% 30% 15% 5% Average Medical Cost Population Percent of Population HUI risk is predictive of cost = Population = Population = Cost = HUI #PopulationHealth #HUIRisk
  • 6. 5% Population: Annual Health Benefits Utilization Analysis Bottom 95% Top 5% Medications 3 10 Providers 4 11 Diagnoses 4 13 Tests 7 33 Average Individual Integrated Cost $2,383 $40,729 Human Capital Risk Index® (HUI) 0.86 4.06 Health Risk Assessment (HRA) Self-Report Risk Score 90.3 89.5 #5PercentProblem #HUIRisk
  • 7. 5% Population: Disease Cluster Comorbidity Analysis #Comorbidities #HUIRisk
  • 8. HUI Telehealth Clinical Decision Support Model Secure Internal Network Benefits Sponsor Clinical Service Documentation Patient-Centered Care Electronic Health Record Clinical Decision Support Provider Data • HR • Compensation • Medical • Pharmacy • Lost Time/STD • Workers’ Comp On-Demand Clinical Decision Support iHUI #HUIRisk HIPAA-Compliant Data Warehouse & Predictive Analytic HUI
  • 9. Telehealth 5% Solution Results Right services to the right person at the right time Waste Specialty Care & Prescription Drug Cost Person-Centric Primary Care & Prevention Health As Human Capital Cost Savings & Resource for Worker Wages #HUIRisk
  • 10. Learn More About HUI & The 5% Problem Visit Our Website And Subscribe To Our Blog www.hcmsgroup.com Visit Us On LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/hcms-group Follow Us On Twitter (@hcmsgroup) https://twitter.com/hcmsgroup

Editor's Notes

  1. Motivation & Buy-in Track “Application of Predictive Analytics (Human Capital Risk Index|HUI) to drive patient-centric Care” Technology Driven Solutions for the Healthcare Cost & Quality Problem|.5 Harold (Hank) Gardner, MD, CEO Human Capital Management Services
  2. The5|50 Problem Light to find a solution The real problem is the 5%, and to address it you need to know who they are.
  3. HUI shines light into that darkness, here’s what it is and how it works.
  4. Predictive Analytic
  5. Why Econometric based HUI verses HRA
  6. Now that we know who the 5% are and have a useful risk metric, here’s how to use that knowledge: Treat the whole person with clinical prevention, smarter primary care, COE, etc.
  7. The 5|50 Problem Light to find a solution The real problem is the 5%, and to address it you need to know who they are.
  8. The 5|50 Problem Light to find a solution The real problem is the 5%, and to address it you need to know who they are.