El Estado Mundial de la Agricultura y la Alimentación: La ganadería a exámen, SOFA 2009
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Presentación de Henning Steinfeld, FAO, durante la XI Reunión de la CODEGALAC, Capítulo Cono Sur, realizada del 16 y 18 de noviembre de 2010 en Buenos Aires, Argentina
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El Estado Mundial de la Agricultura y la Alimentación: La ganadería a exámen, SOFA 2009
- 1. EL Estado Mundial de la Agricultura y la Alimentation: La ganadería a exámen The State of 1 The State of Food and Agriculture Livestock in the balance FAO's major annual flagship publication. Available in English, French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and Chinese www.fao.org/publications/sofa
- 2. Livestock in the balance • Large, growing, dynamic sector • Public goods at risk – Livelihoods and food security – Natural resources and the environment 2 – Animal diseases and human health • Better policies, institutions and regulations • Conflicts and trade-offs
- 3. 300400500 Indexnumber:1961=100 Consumption is growing rapidly in developing countries ... Eggs Meat 3 100200300 Indexnumber:1961=100 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Roots and tubers Cereals Meat Milk Eggs Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100) Milk
- 4. Drivers of growth • Animal numbers more than productivity • Cheap feed and fuel • Economies of scale 4 • Economies of scale • Technological innovation
- 5. ... and structural change • Vertical integration and global supply chains • Geographic concentration • Higher food safety and animal 5 • Higher food safety and animal health standards • A widening dichotomy
- 6. Livelihoods and food security • Livelihoods – 1 billion people keep livestock – 60 percent of rural households – livestock have multiple functions 6 – livestock have multiple functions • Food supply – 15 percent of dietary energy – 25 percent of protein supply
- 7. Environment: why livestock are different from crops? • Livestock use more land • Livestock food chains are longer – and entail efficiency losses 7 • Livestock move • Livestock production systems are mobile
- 8. Increasing animal disease risks • Co-existence of traditional and modern livestock production • Increasing travel and trade 8 • Climate change and changing ecologies
- 9. Balancing objectives • Livelihoods • Food security • Environment and natural resources 9 • Human health
- 10. Human health Balancing objectives 10 Rapid industrialization Low development Slow industrialization Post-industrial Livelihoods Environment Food security
- 11. “...towards a more responsible livestock sector...” • Need to address and correct the current under-provision of global and local public goods in the livestock sector 11 • Deal with social, environmental and health aspects of sector development in a dynamic, integrated and inter-disciplinary manner
- 13. Development of theDevelopment of the Responsible Livestock AgendaResponsible Livestock Agenda • Led by a “dialogue group” (Netherlands, New Zealand, Brazil, WB, FAO); • Focus on enhancing efficiency of resource use (land, nutrients, water, energy) in global(land, nutrients, water, energy) in global livestock sector value chains; • Through: – development of a “think tank”; – knowledge sharing and policy dialogue – supporting inter-governmental processes and partnerships
- 14. The State of Food and Agriculture Livestock in the balance FAO's major annual flagship publication. Available in English, French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and Chinese 14 Arabic and Chinese www.fao.org/publications/sofa
- 15. “beef to become the caviar of the future”the future”
- 17. Meat Production (5 countries)
- 18. Land use trends 110 115 120 125 Index:1990=100 Arable land Pasture Forest area 90 95 100 105 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Index:1990=100
- 19. Real commodity prices 200 250 300 350 400 Index:1983=100 Beef and veal Pork Coarse grains Crude oil Oilseeds Oilmeal 0 50 100 150 200 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Index:1983=100
- 20. Emission Intensities (direct emissions from livestock) GTAP 2001 data base
- 21. 5 countries • mass product for the emerging middle class? • feed resource constrains for beef: pasture, arablearable • technological progress slow • beef will have to go up-market
- 22. Net Trade: milk and meat 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 '000metrictonnes -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007 '000metrictonnes Meat Milk
- 23. Net trade - Meat 1,500 2,000 2,500 '000metrictonnes Argentina Brazil Chile Paraguay Uruguay -500 0 500 1,000 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2007 '000metrictonnes
- 24. Trends in soybean production and exports 60 80 100 120 Millionmetrictonnes Production Exports 0 20 40 60 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Millionmetrictonnes
- 26. Concentrate feed use, 2007 Cereals Brans 6% Roots & tubers 20% Cereals 51% Oilcrops 1% Oil cakes 22%
- 27. Trends in soybean production and acreage 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 millionhecatres '000metrictonnes Production Area harvested 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 millionhecatres '000metrictonnes
- 28. Average annual change in land use, 1990- 2008 Land use Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay 1000 ha Agriculture +303 +1,272 +180 +2 Arable land +311 +573 +116 +21Arable land +311 +573 +116 +21 Soybean area +635 +532 +87 +24 Pasture -7 +656 +63 -18 Forest land -273 -2,829 0 0 Other land -30 1,558 -1 -43
- 29. Total acreage for main land-use types and average annual change in land use, 1990- 2008 Land use Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay 1000 ha 1990- 1990- 1990- 1990- 2008 1990- 2008 2008 1990- 2008 2008 1990- 2008 2008 1990- 2008 Arable land 32,000 +311 61,000 +573 4,200 +116 1,640 +21 Pasture 99,850 -7 196,000 -656 16,100 +63 13,191 -18 Forest land 29,879 -237 523,910 -2,829 17,939 0 1,654 0
- 31. Average annual change in land use, 1990- 2008 Land use Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay 1000 ha 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 Arable land 26, 400 32,000 50,681 61,000 2,110 4,200 1,260 1,640 Pasture 99,970 99,850 184,200 196,000 14,960 16,100 13,520 13,191 Forest land 34,793 29,879 574,839 523,910 21,157 17,939 920 1,654