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Mike Moran




What Are Your Customers Saying About You?



                    Mike Moran
                    RKG Summit
                    May 2012




www.mikemoran.com                 © 2012 Mike Moran Group LLC
Mike Moran




What are they saying about you?
                                                FORUMS/NEWSGROUPS


                                                                    MICROBLOGS
               VIDEO SHARING




                                                                                 SOCIAL NETWORKS
            WIKIS
                                           The
                                       Conversation

                                                                           SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS
        PHOTO SHARING                                                      AGGREGATORS




                                                            MAINSTREAM MEDIA
                               BLOGS
    2

2                                                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                                         © 2012 Mike
                                                                                           2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Message boards have long been complaint centers




     Would you have spotted this comment?

     Would someone know how to respond?

     What if that is one my competitors?



3                                            © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                       © 2012 Mike
                                                         2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




    But now all you need is a phone

        Your customers look at
         reviews before going into
         your restaurant


        Or writing a review while
         they wait for the check




4                                     © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                © 2012 Mike
                                                  2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Social media now makes marketing a conversation

     Readers comment on your blogs

     They change your wikis

     The create blogs of their own

     They create “hate” sites if they
      don’t like you


    Web 1.0 users were consumers
    Web 2.0 users are participants

5                                        © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                   © 2012 Mike
                                                     2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Marketers do not have message control

      We don’t control the message

      Maybe we never did

      The message is changed, rebutted, and
       misconstrued by our
       audience

      We must modify what
       we say in response




6                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                         © 2012 Mike
                                                           2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Social media is exploding

      164 million blogs (over 1M new posts each day)
      Source: Invesp, July 2011



      250 million tweets per day (almost tripled in one year)
      Source: Twiter, October 2011



      800 million Facebook
       users (half are daily users)
      Source: Facebook, December 2011



      YouTube serves three
       billion videos per day
      Source: YouTube, December 2011



      695,000 status updates on
       Facebook—every second!
      Source: Barry Ritholtz, December 2011




7                                                           © 2012 Mike  7
                                                  © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                              2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




The blueprint for social media marketing



    Listen

                    Mobilize

                               Engage

                                        Measure




8                                          © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                     © 2012 Mike
                                                       2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




The blueprint for social media marketing



    Listen

                    Mobilize

                               Engage

                                        Measure




9                                          © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                     © 2012 Mike
                                                       2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Ford contains a potential disaster

      A Ford fan site goes public with a Ford cease and
       desist order that goes viral on the Web

      Scott Monty of Ford tweets “not good” when he
       first hears the story

      Later, his legal team explains that the fan site was
       selling counterfeit Ford items and he tweets that

      Within 24 hours, the story is dead, with Ford’s
       reputation intact


10                                                 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                             © 2012 Mike
                                                               2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Graco handles a recall online

      Imagine the nightmare of baby
       strollers recalled for safety reasons

      Graco jumped on Twitter and responded to every
       nervous tweet, requesting serial numbers and
       providing advice

      Afterwards, as many stories praised Graco as
       slammed them




11                                             © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                         © 2012 Mike
                                                           2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Comcast’s rude introduction

      Comcast’s first exposure to
       social media came from a
       YouTube video of a service man
       sleeping on the customer’s couch

      They later became one of the first companies to
       pioneer customer service on Twitter




12                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



      USAA has a social voice of the member program

                                 Executives          Functional Leaders          Regional Leaders

                           Real-time                                                  Trend
                            Reports                                                  Analysis

                                               Unified Information Access




              Product Websites                     Social Media                           Surveys and
                                                                                         Focus Groups
     • Product/Service Ratings & Reviews      Customer Comments on:
     • Customer Discussion Forums             • Facebook Fan pages    • Blogs
     • Customer Article/Blog Comments         • Twitter               • Flickr
      13

13                                                                                       © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                                                   © 2012 Mike
                                                                                                     2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Listening tells you the lay of the land

      Learn what
       customers think

      Decide what
       you’d like to
       change about
       that




14                                        © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                    © 2012 Mike
                                                      2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     How do you start listening?


           Find your friends

           Use search

           Follow your favorite
            bloggers

            Approach 1:
              Listen by
               person

     15

15                                 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                             © 2012 Mike
                                               2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



Influencers of the conversation can be scored

                         Reach
                      » Site traffic
                                                         • Influencers vary by
                  » Followers/Friends                      conversation
                   » Number of social
                      media venues
                                                         • Quantitative scoring
      Engagement                        Authority          can reveal the people
     » # of relevant                  » Online rank        who make the
        messages                   » Number of back-
     » Frequency of                         links          conversation
       conversation              » Respect or standing
                                     within community
                                                         • Human analysts can
                      Connectivity
                  » Bloggers blogroll
                                                           provide qualitative
                     » Cross-topic                         scoring, also
                       connectivity
                    » Influence flow

16
                                                                           © 2012 Mike Moran
                                                                           © 2008 Mike
Mike Moran



Influencers have relationships with each other




17

                                      © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                © 2012 Mike
                                                  2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




     Suppose you don’t know who to follow?

      See what’s happening now with Twitter search

      Use hashtags



      Approach 2:
          Listen by
            topic



     18

18                                                    © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                © 2012 Mike
                                                                  2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Engagement tools do simple listening
      Choose people to follow

      Enter simple keywords or hashtags for
       subjects

      Only finds Twitter data, with possibly some
       blogs or Facebook

      Hootsuite is a prime example

      Seesmic is also popular

      Tweetdeck being purchased by Twitter

     19

19                                                   © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                               © 2012 Mike
                                                                 2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




 Google Alerts are comprehensive, but slower

           Google Alerts are free and easy, but not realtime

           Set up a search
            and follow the
            e-mails or an
            RSS feed

           Perfect for small
            businesses and
            unique search
            keywords
     20

20                                                        © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                    © 2012 Mike
                                                                      2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




But other companies fail with search algorithms

      “T-Mobile” will be found quite
       easily

      “Sprint” not so much

      “Verizon Wireless” is also
       not easy to isolate




21                                      © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                  © 2012 Mike
                                                    2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




How can you compare volumes?

      You want to say, “Our volume of conversation is
       bigger than our competitors”

      But…

         You can’t ensure the
          accuracy of your dataset

         The volume goes up all
          the time anyway




22                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     And no technology sees all the data, anyway


           Public: Twitter, blogs,
            YouTube, most message
            boards


           Private: Most Facebook,
            most LinkedIn, some
            message boards


           In between: Reviews
     23

23                                        © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                    © 2012 Mike
                                                      2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




And all mentions of your brand are not good

                          Top Five Tech Pundits in Smart Phone Conversation

         Blog URL                Net Sentiment       Rank                   Traffic
                                  (toward Brand)

                                                              Venue falls in the top 1% of highest
     Engadget                                         A
                                                                trafficked, most influential sites

                                                              Venue falls in the top 1% of highest
     Gizmodo
                                                      A         trafficked, most influential sites

                                                              Venue falls in the top 10% of high
     Electronista
                                                      B                trafficked sites

                                                              Venue falls in the top 10% of high
     UberGizmo
                                                      B                trafficked sites

                                                               Venue falls in the bottom 90% of
     Switched
                                                      C                trafficked sites



24                                                                          © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                                      © 2012 Mike
                                                                                        2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Do you want to measure postings or mentions?
                                  [Negative for Treximet Cardio Side Effects] “I did a little research of
                                    my own, and was a bit alarmed to come upon a forum of migraine
                                  sufferers who had tried the drug and reported tightness in the chest
                                   and other indications of cardiac disturbance. I decided to leave the
                                                   Treximet in the desk, untouched. “
                                             Blog.lazyharpy.com, published on 18-02-2009



                                     [Positive for Cardio Side Effects] “For some reason, today I
                                   picked it up. I did a quick web search for adverse side effects of
                                  Imitrex, which I have used for years, and felt surprised to see the
                                    very same descriptions as those accompanying the Treximet.
                                                Since Imitrex has never bothered me,..”
                                            Blog.lazyharpy.com, published on 18-02-2009


• Do you care if the whole post
  is positive or negative?         [Positive for Treximet Effectiveness] “…I popped a Treximet,
                                  slanted my shades, closed and locked my office door, and put
• Or what the specifics are for   my head down for fifteen minutes. When my alarm went off, my
  each issue?                          head was perfectly clear. That was four hours ago.”
                                            Blog.lazyharpy.com, published on 18-02-2009
     25
25                                                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




What metrics matter?




     Trends
                                      Sentiment




                    Share of Voice

26                                   © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                               © 2012 Mike
                                                 2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




What do you need to use listening for?



      Market Research          Crisis Management

      Product Development      Sales Leads

      Reputation Management    Recruiting




27                                             © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                         © 2012 Mike
                                                           2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




What do you need to use listening for?

       Need High Relevance         Less Relevance OK

      Market Research           Crisis Management

      Product Development       Sales Leads

      Reputation Management     Recruiting




           Aggregated data OR     Individual postings
28                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     Algorithmic sentiment analysis misses sarcasm

                               “Oh, the iPhone is a
                             beautiful girl, no doubt.”

                             The automated sentiment
                            analysis failed to identify the
                              sarcasm and coded the
                            entry as positive for iPhone,
                             while failing to understand
                               the author was actually
                             saying there was no value
                             for the iPhone beneath its
                                    flashy exterior




29                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Algorithmic sentiment analysis misses nuance

        “I waited on line for     You know that
        my entire lunch hour       these are negative,
         at my Wells Fargo         but there is no word
           branch today.”          to tell the algorithm

                                  These would be
                                   marked neutral by
      “State Farm never            most algorithms
       told me I had no
       flood coverage.”         “Amazon wouldn’t
                                refund my money.”


30                                            © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                        © 2012 Mike
                                                          2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Algorithmic sentiment misses context

      The same words mean different things
      An “unpredictable” movie is good, but “unpredictable”
       food quality, not so much
      We like “small” cell phones but not “small” hotel rooms
      “Faded” jeans are good, but
       not “faded” photos
      “Frozen” computers are
       bad, but “frozen”
       margaritas are good

31                                               © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                           © 2012 Mike
                                                             2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




The problem: Algorithms alone fall short

      70% accuracy on relevance

      70% accuracy on sentiment

      70% times 70% = 49%         “Oh, the iPhone is a beautiful
                                          girl, no doubt.”



             The best algorithms seem to
                   fail half the time

32                                                    © 2012 Mike©2010 Mike Moran
                                                                © MoranMike LLC
                                                                  2012 Group
                                                                   2008
Mike Moran




     Human analysts can correct the algorithms


      If you need the data to be right, you need people to
       check the machines



      The machines collect the data and
       make the easy calls, and they
       suggest the answers for the tough
       ones, but humans make the final
       decision

     33

33                                                    © 2012 Mike©2010 Mike Moran
                                                                © MoranMike LLC
                                                                  2012 Group
                                                                   2008
Mike Moran




But that can be expensive

      You can’t afford to have people look at everything

      What do you instead?

         Sampling

         Machine learning




34                                               © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                           © 2012 Mike
                                                             2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     Machines can learn from the humans

      Machine learning algorithms can detect patterns where
       human analysts corrected the machines

      That feedback can then be used
       to update the computer algorithms
       so the computers are more
       accurate on the first try

      But…you need accurate training
       data—sometimes lots of training
       data
     35

35                                                  © 2012 Mike©2010 Mike Moran
                                                              © MoranMike LLC
                                                                2012 Group
                                                                 2008
Mike Moran




How does machine learning work?

      Supervised
       learning corrects
       the machine

      Unsupervised
       finds unknown
       patterns

      Semi-supervised
       corrects when the
       machine is
       unsure

36                                © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                            © 2012 Mike
                                              2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Still don’t care what people are saying?

      You can take this approach

      No one can force you to listen

      But you might be interested in knowing who is
       listening…




37                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Yep, the big G…

      Google has is
       listening ears on

      No one knows
       everything Google
       might be listening to, but…

      …two we have evidence for:

         Sentiment of links

         Human ratings

38                                   © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                               © 2012 Mike
                                                 2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Google was embarrassed by negative links

      Making customers irate yields links

      Google said sentiment analysis wouldn’t work

      But many
       believe
       they use it
       now




39                                             © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                         © 2012 Mike
                                                           2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Google Panda listens to human raters

      Human beings rate a small subset of search results:
           Nice design?
           Speedy response?
           Quality content?
           Would you return?

      Sites that people like get
       bumped higher in ranking

      The sites they don’t like
       are shoved down


40                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Machine learning scales the human ratings

      Even Google can’t afford human ratings for every
       page for every search

      So, it looks for patterns—common features

      If your site looks like the
       low-rated sites, your site
       gets ranked lower




41                                              © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                          © 2012 Mike
                                                            2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




What is the practical effect of Panda?

      Sites that ranked highly with the old algorithm have
       been affected

      If your site was great for search engines, but
       not for actual people, time to up your game

      Who seemed to get hit?
         “Content farms” and screen-scrapers
         Older content
         Sites loaded with ads
         Vertical search sites—but not Google sites!

42                                                      © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                  © 2012 Mike
                                                                    2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     Next: Listen to non-text objects


      Audio



      Video



      Images



     43

43                                      © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                  © 2012 Mike
                                                    2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     Next: Cross national languages


           Those who need to know
            can’t speak every language

           Machine translation crosses
            the gap

           Automation will be
            augmented with human
            beings at first



     44

44                                        © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                    © 2012 Mike
                                                      2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran



     Next: Predictive modeling


                 Sales           Brand Tracking

                                  Conversion/Analytics
                       Traffic


                                 Conversation Mining




     45

45                                                 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                             © 2012 Mike
                                                               2008 Group LLC
Mike Moran




Read all about it
                       “Buy this book, read it, and then
        The             read it again.”
    search
                        --Chris   Sherman, Search Engine Watch



 marketing             Updated at each printing
 best seller


                                                  Miami Herald: A Top
                                                   Biz Book of 2007
                                                      “Great book.”
                                                         --Robert   Scoble, Scoblizer blog
Web: mikemoran.com
                                                      “Act now and read
Twitter: @mikemoran                                    it.”
                                                         --Bryan Eisenberg, Author of #1 best
                                                         seller Waiting for Your Cat to Bark?
Blog: biznology.com
46                                                                  © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran
                                                                              © 2012 Mike
                                                                                2008 Group LLC

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What Are Your Customers Saying about You? - RKG Summit May 2012

  • 1. Mike Moran What Are Your Customers Saying About You? Mike Moran RKG Summit May 2012 www.mikemoran.com © 2012 Mike Moran Group LLC
  • 2. Mike Moran What are they saying about you? FORUMS/NEWSGROUPS MICROBLOGS VIDEO SHARING SOCIAL NETWORKS WIKIS The Conversation SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS PHOTO SHARING AGGREGATORS MAINSTREAM MEDIA BLOGS 2 2 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 3. Mike Moran Message boards have long been complaint centers  Would you have spotted this comment?  Would someone know how to respond?  What if that is one my competitors? 3 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 4. Mike Moran But now all you need is a phone  Your customers look at reviews before going into your restaurant  Or writing a review while they wait for the check 4 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 5. Mike Moran Social media now makes marketing a conversation  Readers comment on your blogs  They change your wikis  The create blogs of their own  They create “hate” sites if they don’t like you Web 1.0 users were consumers Web 2.0 users are participants 5 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 6. Mike Moran Marketers do not have message control  We don’t control the message  Maybe we never did  The message is changed, rebutted, and misconstrued by our audience  We must modify what we say in response 6 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 7. Mike Moran Social media is exploding  164 million blogs (over 1M new posts each day) Source: Invesp, July 2011  250 million tweets per day (almost tripled in one year) Source: Twiter, October 2011  800 million Facebook users (half are daily users) Source: Facebook, December 2011  YouTube serves three billion videos per day Source: YouTube, December 2011  695,000 status updates on Facebook—every second! Source: Barry Ritholtz, December 2011 7 © 2012 Mike 7 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran 2008 Group LLC
  • 8. Mike Moran The blueprint for social media marketing Listen Mobilize Engage Measure 8 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 9. Mike Moran The blueprint for social media marketing Listen Mobilize Engage Measure 9 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 10. Mike Moran Ford contains a potential disaster  A Ford fan site goes public with a Ford cease and desist order that goes viral on the Web  Scott Monty of Ford tweets “not good” when he first hears the story  Later, his legal team explains that the fan site was selling counterfeit Ford items and he tweets that  Within 24 hours, the story is dead, with Ford’s reputation intact 10 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 11. Mike Moran Graco handles a recall online  Imagine the nightmare of baby strollers recalled for safety reasons  Graco jumped on Twitter and responded to every nervous tweet, requesting serial numbers and providing advice  Afterwards, as many stories praised Graco as slammed them 11 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 12. Mike Moran Comcast’s rude introduction  Comcast’s first exposure to social media came from a YouTube video of a service man sleeping on the customer’s couch  They later became one of the first companies to pioneer customer service on Twitter 12 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 13. Mike Moran USAA has a social voice of the member program Executives Functional Leaders Regional Leaders Real-time Trend Reports Analysis Unified Information Access Product Websites Social Media Surveys and Focus Groups • Product/Service Ratings & Reviews Customer Comments on: • Customer Discussion Forums • Facebook Fan pages • Blogs • Customer Article/Blog Comments • Twitter • Flickr 13 13 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 14. Mike Moran Listening tells you the lay of the land  Learn what customers think  Decide what you’d like to change about that 14 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 15. Mike Moran How do you start listening?  Find your friends  Use search  Follow your favorite bloggers Approach 1: Listen by person 15 15 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 16. Mike Moran Influencers of the conversation can be scored Reach » Site traffic • Influencers vary by » Followers/Friends conversation » Number of social media venues • Quantitative scoring Engagement Authority can reveal the people » # of relevant » Online rank who make the messages » Number of back- » Frequency of links conversation conversation » Respect or standing within community • Human analysts can Connectivity » Bloggers blogroll provide qualitative » Cross-topic scoring, also connectivity » Influence flow 16 © 2012 Mike Moran © 2008 Mike
  • 17. Mike Moran Influencers have relationships with each other 17 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 18. Mike Moran Suppose you don’t know who to follow?  See what’s happening now with Twitter search  Use hashtags Approach 2: Listen by topic 18 18 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 19. Mike Moran Engagement tools do simple listening  Choose people to follow  Enter simple keywords or hashtags for subjects  Only finds Twitter data, with possibly some blogs or Facebook  Hootsuite is a prime example  Seesmic is also popular  Tweetdeck being purchased by Twitter 19 19 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 20. Mike Moran Google Alerts are comprehensive, but slower  Google Alerts are free and easy, but not realtime  Set up a search and follow the e-mails or an RSS feed  Perfect for small businesses and unique search keywords 20 20 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 21. Mike Moran But other companies fail with search algorithms  “T-Mobile” will be found quite easily  “Sprint” not so much  “Verizon Wireless” is also not easy to isolate 21 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 22. Mike Moran How can you compare volumes?  You want to say, “Our volume of conversation is bigger than our competitors”  But…  You can’t ensure the accuracy of your dataset  The volume goes up all the time anyway 22 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 23. Mike Moran And no technology sees all the data, anyway  Public: Twitter, blogs, YouTube, most message boards  Private: Most Facebook, most LinkedIn, some message boards  In between: Reviews 23 23 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 24. Mike Moran And all mentions of your brand are not good Top Five Tech Pundits in Smart Phone Conversation Blog URL Net Sentiment Rank Traffic (toward Brand) Venue falls in the top 1% of highest Engadget A trafficked, most influential sites Venue falls in the top 1% of highest Gizmodo A trafficked, most influential sites Venue falls in the top 10% of high Electronista B trafficked sites Venue falls in the top 10% of high UberGizmo B trafficked sites Venue falls in the bottom 90% of Switched C trafficked sites 24 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 25. Mike Moran Do you want to measure postings or mentions? [Negative for Treximet Cardio Side Effects] “I did a little research of my own, and was a bit alarmed to come upon a forum of migraine sufferers who had tried the drug and reported tightness in the chest and other indications of cardiac disturbance. I decided to leave the Treximet in the desk, untouched. “ Blog.lazyharpy.com, published on 18-02-2009 [Positive for Cardio Side Effects] “For some reason, today I picked it up. I did a quick web search for adverse side effects of Imitrex, which I have used for years, and felt surprised to see the very same descriptions as those accompanying the Treximet. Since Imitrex has never bothered me,..” Blog.lazyharpy.com, published on 18-02-2009 • Do you care if the whole post is positive or negative? [Positive for Treximet Effectiveness] “…I popped a Treximet, slanted my shades, closed and locked my office door, and put • Or what the specifics are for my head down for fifteen minutes. When my alarm went off, my each issue? head was perfectly clear. That was four hours ago.” Blog.lazyharpy.com, published on 18-02-2009 25 25 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 26. Mike Moran What metrics matter? Trends Sentiment Share of Voice 26 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 27. Mike Moran What do you need to use listening for?  Market Research  Crisis Management  Product Development  Sales Leads  Reputation Management  Recruiting 27 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 28. Mike Moran What do you need to use listening for? Need High Relevance Less Relevance OK  Market Research  Crisis Management  Product Development  Sales Leads  Reputation Management  Recruiting Aggregated data OR Individual postings 28 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 29. Mike Moran Algorithmic sentiment analysis misses sarcasm “Oh, the iPhone is a beautiful girl, no doubt.” The automated sentiment analysis failed to identify the sarcasm and coded the entry as positive for iPhone, while failing to understand the author was actually saying there was no value for the iPhone beneath its flashy exterior 29 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 30. Mike Moran Algorithmic sentiment analysis misses nuance “I waited on line for  You know that my entire lunch hour these are negative, at my Wells Fargo but there is no word branch today.” to tell the algorithm  These would be marked neutral by “State Farm never most algorithms told me I had no flood coverage.” “Amazon wouldn’t refund my money.” 30 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 31. Mike Moran Algorithmic sentiment misses context  The same words mean different things  An “unpredictable” movie is good, but “unpredictable” food quality, not so much  We like “small” cell phones but not “small” hotel rooms  “Faded” jeans are good, but not “faded” photos  “Frozen” computers are bad, but “frozen” margaritas are good 31 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 32. Mike Moran The problem: Algorithms alone fall short  70% accuracy on relevance  70% accuracy on sentiment  70% times 70% = 49% “Oh, the iPhone is a beautiful girl, no doubt.” The best algorithms seem to fail half the time 32 © 2012 Mike©2010 Mike Moran © MoranMike LLC 2012 Group 2008
  • 33. Mike Moran Human analysts can correct the algorithms  If you need the data to be right, you need people to check the machines  The machines collect the data and make the easy calls, and they suggest the answers for the tough ones, but humans make the final decision 33 33 © 2012 Mike©2010 Mike Moran © MoranMike LLC 2012 Group 2008
  • 34. Mike Moran But that can be expensive  You can’t afford to have people look at everything  What do you instead?  Sampling  Machine learning 34 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 35. Mike Moran Machines can learn from the humans  Machine learning algorithms can detect patterns where human analysts corrected the machines  That feedback can then be used to update the computer algorithms so the computers are more accurate on the first try  But…you need accurate training data—sometimes lots of training data 35 35 © 2012 Mike©2010 Mike Moran © MoranMike LLC 2012 Group 2008
  • 36. Mike Moran How does machine learning work?  Supervised learning corrects the machine  Unsupervised finds unknown patterns  Semi-supervised corrects when the machine is unsure 36 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 37. Mike Moran Still don’t care what people are saying?  You can take this approach  No one can force you to listen  But you might be interested in knowing who is listening… 37 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 38. Mike Moran Yep, the big G…  Google has is listening ears on  No one knows everything Google might be listening to, but…  …two we have evidence for:  Sentiment of links  Human ratings 38 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 39. Mike Moran Google was embarrassed by negative links  Making customers irate yields links  Google said sentiment analysis wouldn’t work  But many believe they use it now 39 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 40. Mike Moran Google Panda listens to human raters  Human beings rate a small subset of search results:  Nice design?  Speedy response?  Quality content?  Would you return?  Sites that people like get bumped higher in ranking  The sites they don’t like are shoved down 40 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 41. Mike Moran Machine learning scales the human ratings  Even Google can’t afford human ratings for every page for every search  So, it looks for patterns—common features  If your site looks like the low-rated sites, your site gets ranked lower 41 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 42. Mike Moran What is the practical effect of Panda?  Sites that ranked highly with the old algorithm have been affected  If your site was great for search engines, but not for actual people, time to up your game  Who seemed to get hit?  “Content farms” and screen-scrapers  Older content  Sites loaded with ads  Vertical search sites—but not Google sites! 42 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 43. Mike Moran Next: Listen to non-text objects  Audio  Video  Images 43 43 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 44. Mike Moran Next: Cross national languages  Those who need to know can’t speak every language  Machine translation crosses the gap  Automation will be augmented with human beings at first 44 44 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 45. Mike Moran Next: Predictive modeling Sales Brand Tracking Conversion/Analytics Traffic Conversation Mining 45 45 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC
  • 46. Mike Moran Read all about it  “Buy this book, read it, and then The read it again.” search --Chris Sherman, Search Engine Watch marketing  Updated at each printing best seller Miami Herald: A Top Biz Book of 2007  “Great book.” --Robert Scoble, Scoblizer blog Web: mikemoran.com  “Act now and read Twitter: @mikemoran it.” --Bryan Eisenberg, Author of #1 best seller Waiting for Your Cat to Bark? Blog: biznology.com 46 © 2012 Mike©MoranMike Moran © 2012 Mike 2008 Group LLC