In November of 2011, Skytide published its report, "7 Online Video Trends to Watch in 2012". Since then, over 13,000 people have read it on Slideshare.
As we hit the halfway point for 2012, would be thought it would be interesting and informative to look at current market data and trends to see how our predictions have panned out.
2. Mid-Year Review: 2012 Online Video Trends to Watch
Over 13,000 people have read Skytide’s “7 Online Video Trends to Watch in
2012,” making it our most popular white paper.
As we hit the halfway point for 2012, we thought it
would be interesting and informative to look at current
market data and trends to see how our predictions
have panned out.
On the following pages, we’ll revisit each of our
previous prognostications and gauge our success. Let’s
get started.
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3. 1. Online video traffic will continue to skyrocket
When we made our initial prediction in November 2011, it was a given that
online video traffic was poised to continue its meteoric ascent in 2012. So
the only factor left to be genuinely debated was the rate of growth.
Familiar industry sources like Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI) forecasted
that the compound annual growth of online video would be 32% between
2010-2015 and would account for 90% of all consumer IP traffic by 2013.
Skytide also concurred that online video traffic would soar but we believed
that the industry’s already bullish forecasts were actually too low! Based on
the growth rates from our Telco CDN customers, we made the bold forecast
that online video traffic would grow by more than 50% in 2012 and that the
resulting capacity crunch would be even more severe than previously
considered.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
• Cisco recently updated its VNI Forecast for 2011-2016. Among
its predictions:
‣ Video over IP will grow 50% from 2011 to 2012
(excluding fixed private networks). When
private networks are included, the growth
rate is still a very healthy 40%.
‣ Online video over mobile devices is on track
to increase by over 100% between 2011-2012,
fueled by the explosion of video now being
consumed on smartphones and tablet computers.
• The unbridled growth of social media also promises to send
online video traffic soaring even higher through the end of 2012. Marc
DeBevoise, VP and General Manager of CBS Interactive, recently revealed
that social media is driving an average of 15% of the video views on
CBS.com.
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4. 2. Operator CDNs will make big inroads
With 41 cable and telco operators reported to be in some phase of CDN
deployment in 2011 (source: Informa Research) and the need for service
providers to offload video traffic becoming even more pronounced, we
predicted that the number of service providers launching their own content
delivery networks would continue to grow and make inroads against legacy
CDN services.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
• Many North American cable multiple system operators
(MSOs) have launched their own CDNs or in the
throes of doing so.
‣ Time Warner recently presented at the
Content Delivery Summit on the critical role
its CDN plays in expanding the company’s
video delivery capabilities.
‣ Cox Communications also presented at the same
conference on choosing the right content delivery
strategy.
‣ StreamingMedia.com’s Dan Rayburn and others have reported on
Comcast’s CDN ambitions.
• In addition, we know of several large new deployments in the works by
operators (and large content providers) new to the CDN space. In fact,
Skytide will be powering the analytics and reporting for some of them,
including one of the largest Operator CDN initiatives to date.
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5. 3. Federated CDNs will finally become a reality
The topic of CDN federation has been bandied about for years, with the promise
that it is just around the corner.
In 2011, it actually started to turn that corner. First, a formalized body called
the Operator Carrier Exchange was announced in June of 2011; a few months
later Cisco revealed the findings from a federated CDN pilot that it had
conducted with several tier 1 carriers. Based on that momentum, we predicted
that a CDN federation could be operationally deployed in 2012.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
CDN federation is definitely picking up speed.
• Akamai announced an operational CDN federation platform
While our prediction was more focused on an interconnection exclusively
between operator CDNs, it is important to note that legacy
content delivery network, Akamai announced in February
20012 that it had deployed its own federated CDN
platform.
• Edgecast also announced a CDN federation platform
Content delivery network, Edgecast soon followed in
May 20012 with an announcement that it had also
deployed its own federated CDN platform and was
already exchanging traffic with unnamed carriers.
• Cisco revealed Phase 2 findings of CDN Federation Pilot
While it’s still in the pilot phase, Cisco’s federation project
continues to move forward. The completion of phase one was announced
in October of 2011 and served to validate the concept of a CDN
interconnection; the second phase introduced some new participants and
examined additional functionality across the federation. Findings from
that pilot can be downloaded here.
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6. 4. Adoption of Adaptive Streaming will climb
The same market dynamics which led us to predict increased adoption of
adaptive bitrate streaming (ABR) protocols remain at mid-year.
Increasingly higher user expectations for a smooth, uninterrupted online video
viewing experience, coupled with the rise of smartphones and other connected
devices, continue to bode well for further adaptive bitrate streaming adoption.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
Based on recent announcements and activity, all signs point to an even faster
rate of adoption for adaptive streaming than we originally ventured.
• In February 2012, industry heavyweights like Microsoft, Adobe and
Netflix publicly announced their support for MPEG DASH
(Dynamic Adaptive Streaming over HTTP,) a new ISO
standard that could replace proprietary technologies
like Apple HLS, Microsoft Smooth Streaming and
Adobe Dynamic Streaming.
This standard is likely to be embraced by content
owners because they could significantly reduce their
workflow by creating a single set of files that run
on all DASH-compatible devices.
• In the meantime, most North American cable MSOs are
rolling out TV Everywhere initiatives that deliver video content to iPads
via adaptive streaming using Apple’s HLS protocol.
• Set-top box (STB) manufacturers are taking note too. French STB
manufacturer, Netgem just introduced a hybrid OTT/DTT solution at the
Anga Cable Show that incorporates adaptive streaming. Set-top box
maker, Amino also made a similar announcement at the show. One has to
believe that the rumored Apple TV would come standard with ABR as well.
Additional reading: What is adaptive bitrate streaming?
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7. 5. MSOs & IPTV services will extend reach into OTT
Evolving viewing behaviors and expectations — including the desire to watch
programming anywhere and on any number of devices — led us to predict that
IPTV providers and MSOs would soon have no choice but to begin exploring OTT
models.
While doing so threatens to lessen their control of the customer experience,
they may have little choice in the matter. Viewers want to consume what they
want, where they want and on whatever device they want.
At the same time, service providers are eager to find ways to generate revenue
from over-the-top traffic that is requiring large capital expenditures to upgrade
their networks.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
Cable and IPTV operators are beginning to test OTT models:
• Verizon Wireless recently announced a new mobile video
application dubbed, Viewdini that seeks to profit
from the over-the-top video coursing its network.
It will function as a video portal that enables
users to find video across multiple services —
Redbox, Hulu Plus, Netflix and Xfinity among
them. Rather than charge customers for
bandwidth consumed, however, this “toll- free”
service may charge the content provider via fees
like revenue sharing deals.
• Meanwhile, Dish Network just announced a digital video recorder (DVR)
called Hopper that allows users to automatically record every prime-time
show on ABC, NBC, Fox and CBS in HD for eight consecutive days: it also
includes the capability to zap commercials. Dish’s Chairman, Charlie
Ergen, described Hopper as a "competitively necessary" response to the
threat that OTT video is posing to traditional pay-TV providers.
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8. 6. Multi-screen viewing will become the benchmark
When we published our online video predictions in November of 2011, sales of
mobile and tablet devices were on a tear and industry analysts and equipment
vendors were heralding the bright future of multi-screen viewing.
Fast forward to June of 2012 and the sales of smartphones and Apple iPad’s
continue unabated, fueling a continued rise in multi-screen viewing.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
• Q1 2012 global smartphone sales topped 144 million versus 101 million for
Q1 2011, and are expected to grow by 35% this year
(source: Gartner). Similarly, tablet sales grew to 17
million in Q1 and are expected to also grow by 35%
(source: IDC).
• These smartphone and tablet purchases are being
put to use. In fact, research indicates that
viewers watch 30% more video on their tablets
than they do on their desktop computer (source:
Ooyala).
• There will be nearly three networked devices per capita
in 2016, up from over one networked device per capita in
2011 (source: Cisco VNI).
• Not surprisingly, practically every North American MSO is now rolling out
services that allow their subscribers to view cable content on their tablet
computers.
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9. 7. Online video ad budgets will swell
A perfect storm was brewing at the end of 2011 to suggest that online video
ad budgets would swell significantly in 2012. In fact, a “Video State of the
Industry Survey” projected that budgets would increase 27% in calendar
2012.
The confluence of improved online video resolution, innovations in video
delivery and devices, and larger inventories of quality content promised to
create higher levels of consumer engagement and time spent viewing. This
confluence would create a virtuous cycle in which increased ad dollars
support more and better online video programming delivered with higher
levels of QoS, which in turn attract even more ad dollars.
How accurate was Skytide’s prediction?
From all indications thus far in 2012, online video advertising is booming, at
least within the U.S.
• In April, Americans viewed a record 9.5 billion video ads
(source: comScore Video Metrix)
• Forrester VP and Research Director, David Cooperstein
recently predicted that more than 50% of marketers
will test the use of digital video in 2012 versus just
20% in 2011.
• Forrester also recently published study findings
that 70% of marketers plan to increase online
advertising this year, especially for mobile video.
• From late April to early May, a group of large
online video content providers participated in the
inaugural Digital Content NewFronts, designed to
emulate the “upfront” meetings that traditional
television programmers have long used to let marketers
purchase TV spots several months in advance.
The NewFronts further legitimize the importance of online video, blur the
lines with TV and foreshadow media buying and planning alignment
between the two.
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10. Related White Papers
7 Online Video Trends to Watch in 2012
The year ahead promises to be full of twists and turns for online
video and the digital media supply chain that serves it. Don't be
caught flat-footed. Read “7 Online Video Trends to Watch in 2012”
to get an advance peek at the trends that will shape the industry
and how you can capitalize on the disruption to come.
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The 4 Keys to Telco CDN Success
Many telecom service providers are building their own content
delivery networks as a means to capitalize on the surge in Internet
video coursing over their networks. With this white paper, we
will reveal four key success factors necessary for Telco CDNs to
effectively harness their competitive edge and realize success.
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How Telcos and ISPs Can Learn to Love OTT
With this white paper we will demonstrate how it is now possible
for telcos to improve their position in the content-to-consumer
value chain, create a more sustainable business model to value
chain members and profit from escalating over-the-top (OTT)
video traffic.
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IP Video Management Analytics 9