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CINDY期間中の
解析誤差分布の特徴




            茂木耕作
            海洋研究開発機構
CINDY期間中の
解析誤差分布の特徴

            茂木耕作
            海洋研究開発機構
CINDY2011                                Japan / Mirai
       Oct. 2011-Jan. 2012
    Oct 2011-Jan 2012



                                       U.S. / Roger Revelle
                          +
   +                      ++
   Nairobi


                  +
             Seychelles   ++
                               +
                               Cocos
                                       India / Sagar Kanya
CINDY



        MJO1
               3事例の
        MJO2   MJOを
        MJO3
                観測
A2 だけが 示せる
ALER
CINDY中のMJOの特徴

                    茂木耕作
                    海洋研究開発機構
ALERA2
エラーバー付き客観解析(2003∼2012)
               観測

 アンサンブル
  のばらつき
     ≒
    誤差               次の解析

         解析         予報
ALERA2
 予報モデル    AFES     (榎本剛)
同化システム    LETKF (三好建正)
 解像度             T119L48
アンサンブル数            63
             UCAR GTS
  観測
          NOAA 日毎のSST
R A2だけ が示せる
MJO1   ALE
       MJO1の特徴
MJO2


MJO3
東西風解析値の時間高度断面
東西風解析値の時間高度断面
                            U解析(m/s)
σ面高度




                       西風


          西風     西風


               MJO1
東西風誤差の時間高度断面
                           U誤差(m/s)
σ面高度




                      西風


          西風     西風


               MJO1
東西風誤差の時間高度断面
                            U誤差(m/s)



        E1 E2   E3     E4
σ面高度




                MJO1
東西風誤差の経度時間断面



      E1
      E2
      E3       MJO1




      E4
東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面



      E1
      E2
      E3     MJO1




      E4
東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面



      E1
      E2
      E3     MJO1




      E4
U誤差(500hPa)



MJO1                 MJO1




MJO2                 MJO2


MJO3                 MJO3
V誤差(500hPa)



MJO1                 MJO1




MJO2                 MJO2


MJO3                 MJO3
T誤差(500hPa)



MJO1                 MJO1




MJO2                 MJO2


MJO3                 MJO3
Q誤差(500hPa)



MJO1




MJO2


MJO3
誤差
                  進   Q
東進              西
  UVT
        誤差

力学場不確定性      水蒸気場不確定性
 後面で大          前面で大
A2 だけが 示せる
  ALER
  CINDY中のMJOの特徴
 力学場不確定性              水蒸気場不確定性
  後面で大                  前面で大
 アフリカ大陸                海大陸での
での力学場観測強化             水蒸気観測強化
A2 だけが 示せる
ALER
CINDY中のMJOの特徴

                    茂木耕作
現象が生じた結果として
  見える解析値
   解析誤差

発生前の兆候
可降水量



MJO1




MJO2


MJO3
MJO1

       CINDY
MJO2


MJO3
現象トレーサー:解析誤差
T誤差(500hPa)          CW誤差(500hPa)



              MJO1




              MJO2


              MJO3
T誤差(500hPa)          Q誤差(500hPa)



              MJO1




              MJO2


              MJO3
PDF          予稿            紙




      MJO発生前から中層で周期的誤差増大
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴

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CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴

Editor's Notes

  1. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  2. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  3. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  4. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  5. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  6. We used a reanalysis dataset with errors at all grid points.\nWe are calling it ALERA.\nIt is produced by an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation technique.\nWe get the error reference from the spread of analysis ensemble member at all grid points.\nIt is not constant as like the other datasets, it is, of course, flow-dependent on dynamic.\n\n
  7. Now, we are producing a new one using far more accurate system of the second generation ALERA.\nThis system is mainly developed by the two genius guys here.\nAs for the forecast model, the AGCM for Earth Simulator is developed by Dr. Enomoto.\nAs for the assimilation system, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter is developed by Dr. Miyoshi.\nIt has a resolution of T119 with 48 levels, and 63 ensemble members.\nThe assimilated observations are obtained from UCAR GTS archive and NOAA daily SST.\n\n
  8. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  9. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  10. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  11. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  12. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  13. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  14. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  15. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  16. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  17. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  18. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  19. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  20. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  21. I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  22. All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  23. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  24. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  25. Like this.\nWe are having the intensified observation network in this way.\nOne day, we have larger errors of zonal wind in the western part of the Indian Ocean.\n
  26. Four days after, it becomes larger and moves eastward.\n
  27. Four more days after, it moves eastward further and has the maximum more than 6 m/s associating with strong westerly winds.\n
  28. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  29. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  30. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  31. All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  32. All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  33. All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  34. All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  35. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  36. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  37. Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n