Human experiences shape future eras
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The document discusses the VERGE/EFF (Ethnographic Futures Framework), a scenario planning method focused on how changes impact human experiences. It was created by Dr. Richard Lum and Michele Bowman to explore how concepts, social structures, technologies, production/consumption, and resources may change between now and 2050 given certain drivers. Groups used the framework to develop three plausible 2050 scenarios by discussing impacts, key actors/organizations, tensions, and timeline of events.
![Verge / EFF: History ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ LOTS of people – consultants in particular – talk about the “drivers” of change. And they’re usually referring to technology when they do so. I prefer to think about how change happens across the various segments of human experience. Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not.” Richard Lum, M.A., Ph.D. Futures Vision Strategy Foresight LLC Michele Bowman, M.A. Futures AndSpace Consulting](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/effsummary-110303161726-phpapp02/85/summary-of-verge-ethnographic-futures-framework-devised-by-richard-lum-and-michele-bowman-1-320.jpg)
![EFF Verge: Case Studies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Michele Bowman, M.A. Futures AndSpace Consulting Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. Futures Infinite Futures Andrew Curry The Futures Company](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Human experiences shape future eras
- 6. The processes and technology through which we create goods & services The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we aquire and use them Social structures & relationships which link people and organizations The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us The technologies used to connect people, places and things Verge/EFF: scenario building focused on people: EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of AndSpace Consulting
- 7. The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us, including: Social Values & Attitudes Scientific Models Culture Economic Systems Religion Politics & Public Policy What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? Example: radical biotechnology : No extinction exists between ‘natural’ and ‘artificial’; highly elastic notions of what ‘human’ looks like…
- 8. Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations, including: Demographics Family & Lifestyle Groups Work & Economy Habitat & Ecosystems Business Models & Practices Government International Relations Education How will we live together on planet Earth? Example: radical biotechnology : New ‘synthetic’ ethnicities; some ecosystems treated as living works of art; international regulatory compacts to monitor Impacts of bio-designs.
- 9. The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including: Information Technology Music Media Visual Arts Language Space What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? Example: radical biotechnology : DNA-based computing possible; gifts of bio-designed life the new Valentine bouquets; genetically engineered organic sculptures…
- 10. The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services, including: Engineering Wealth Manufacturing Innovation Processes Life Sciences Materials Sciences Nanotechnology As human beings what will we be inspired to create? Example: radical biotechnology : Many new materials ‘manufactured’ on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’ monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc…
- 11. The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them, including: Consumer Goods Energy Food & Agriculture House & Home Entertainment & Leisure Healthcare Natural Resources Touch Points How will we use the earth’s resources? Example: radical biotechnology : More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to others of their kind, optimise their intake / output of energy and waste….
- 12. You have been assigned a scenario to explore. Your task is to consider what changes might arise from now until 2050 given the drivers defining your scenario. Using the discussion questions below, imagine how 2050 in your scenario might differ significantly from life today. What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world? How will we live together on planet Earth? What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? As human beings what will we be inspired to create? How will we use the earth’s resources?
- 13. Your Scenario 2050 Drivers What would make this happen? Create a timeline. 1 st horizon 2 nd horizon 3 rd horizon Time Dominance of model Impacts Impacts Impacts Impacts Impacts Impacts 2010 2020 2030 2050 2040
- 17. The processes and technology through which we create goods & services The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we acquire and use them Social structures & relationships which link people and organizations The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us The technologies used to connect people, places and things Verge/EFF: scenario building focused on people: EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of AndSpace Consulting
- 18. The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us, including: Social Values & Attitudes Scientific Models Culture Economic Systems Religion Politics & Public Policy Actors: opinion leaders in the news (bloggers? virtual reality celebs?); scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revplutionaries… who are they and what new models and paradigms are they proposing? New concepts, ideas, and paradigms
- 19. Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations, including: Demographics Family & Lifestyle Groups Work & Economy Habitat & Ecosystems Business Models & Practices Government International Relations Education How will we live together on planet Earth? Actors: how do businesses work together in this future -- how do unions and businesses relate? Who are the key NGOs? Is the UN still relevant? What’s the most important government agency? How do families work?
- 20. The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including: Information Technology Music Media Visual Arts Language Space What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? Actors: who’s the most influential news source, and why? Who are the newest celebs and what do they promote? What’s the biggest media company? What’s the new diplomatic language?
- 21. The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services, including: Engineering Wealth Manufacturing Innovation Processes Life Sciences Materials Sciences Nanotechnology What will we be inspired to create? Actors: who are the angel investors in this future? Who manufactures goods, and where -- what’s the newest big MNC/TNC? What is the ‘next big thing’ in this future, and who is the “Bill Gates”? What universities produce the most discoveries? Where and how is food produced?
- 22. The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them, including: Consumer Goods Energy Food & Agriculture House & Home Entertainment & Leisure Healthcare Natural Resources How will we use the earth’s resources? Actors: what is the equivalent of a shopping centre? Who owns it? Is the line between producing food and consuming it distinct or blurred? Does everyone own their own home -- are homes detached, or are flats the norm? What’s the biggest energy company? What organisation provides healthcare? Who handles waste?
- 23. Your Scenario 2050 Drivers Who and what would make this happen? Create a timeline. Events Events Events Events Events Events 1 st horizon 2 nd horizon 3 rd horizon Time Dominance of model Impacts Impacts 2010 2020 2030 2050 2040 Actors Actors Actors Actors Impacts
Editor's Notes
- The Ethnographic Futures Framework - VERGE - was developed by Kaipo Lum and Michele Bowman of Global Foresight Associates, and any use of it should cite them as authors / designers.
- The Ethnographic Futures Framework - VERGE - was developed by Kaipo Lum and Michele Bowman of Global Foresight Associates, and any use of it should cite them as authors / designers.
- The Ethnographic Futures Framework - VERGE - was developed by Kaipo Lum and Michele Bowman of Global Foresight Associates, and any use of it should cite them as authors / designers.