The New Next: 2011 Moblie Influencers Predictions by TrendsSpotting
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TrendsSpotting 4th annual digital prediction series is featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year. Looking at 2010 and observing the trends we’ve seen that year – we aim at figuring out what will be new in 2011. THE NEW NEXT initiative is focused not in what will happen in 2011 (as most predictions you find) but rather on the new trends emerging out of what we have seen earlier. The Mobile 2011 Report is following the predictions of ReadWriteWeb, GigaOm, Juniper, IBM and other leading experts. Watch for TrendsSpoting's 2011 Social Media Predictions.
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The New Next: 2011 Moblie Influencers Predictions by TrendsSpotting
- 2. What’s THE NEW NEXT? TrendsSpotting 4th annual digital prediction series is featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year. Looking at 2010 and observing the trends we’ve seen that year – we aim at figuring out what will be new in 2011. THE NEW NEXT initiative is focused not in what will happen in 2011 (as most predictions you find) but rather on the new trends emerging out of what we have seen earlier. What we have learned from working with different consumer domains is that one consumer behavior can develop into another behavior. People are looking for ways to display these behaviors. Technologies offer them such solutions. Influenced by consumer preferences as well as by external circumstances, new industries are opening up to answer consumer needs. We are interested in finding out how such future developments may unfold next year. On the basis of the new trends identified we have updated our prediction model (featured on the last slide).
- 3. “ Africa and Asia (which havethe largest share of worldwide mobile Web usage) are the mobile industry's 600 lb. gorilla. It's clear that those “ Abraham Hyatt markets will end up playing a significant role in Production Editor at Read Write Web how the world consumes the mobile Web. Africa & Asia “ Everyone rushes out to buy the Verizon iPhone. Later, Apple reveals the iPhone 5 with NFC built in. Everyone rushes out to buy that too. ... We get a glimpse of the NFC future of mobile commerce this year, but “ retailer buy-in won't happen in the next 12 Sarah Perez Mobile Virtualization months, sorry shoppers. “ Editor of Read Write Mobile Mobile virtualization will start to see adoption. Alex Williams The enterprise will see the value in creating Editor of ReadWriteEnterprise distinct environment for apps and data on a “ and ReadWriteCloud. mobile device. It will also mean that people will not have to carry two or more mobile devices.
- 4. “ Although phones with dual-core processors will debut in early 2011, more than 25 % “ of smart phones sold by the end of the year will use dual-core chips. Dual –core chips Metered Mobile Data Kevin Tofel “ U.S. carriers will continue to rely on network offload solutions such as femtocells and more public Wi-Fi zones, GigaOm (but) at least one carrier will supplement “ current data plans with a truly metered trial option.
- 5. “ 2011 will see the launch of the first cloud OS for mobile. Mobile Banking will become a “must- have” when opening a new account. Mobile Devices begin to replace credit Cloud OS cards. Mobile Finance Mobile handsets become even more Sensors sensitive (proximity, temperature, Lottery biometrics, 3D displays, and projectors). Security Mobile lottery tickets sales to soar. Mobile-specific threats lead to “ demand for Mobile-specific security.
- 6. “ 2011 will see Spanish-language mobile games and more content targeted specifically to this segment. 50% of Fortune 100 consumer brands will run Latino- “ targeted mobile marketing campaigns in 2011, up from 25% in 2010. “ Consumers expect an app-like experience; once that experience is replicated on the mobile web, expect more companies to focus there. “ Also for social and casual games, the future is the Latino Segment mobile . Mobile Web “ Virtual Currency As carriers begin to build out direct billing relationships with publishers, and publishers establish viable virtual currency ecosystems with seamless “ micro-transactions, virtual currency transactions will Jamie Hall grow 500% in 2011. Co-founder and CTO at MocoSpace.
- 7. Jeff Pulver Technology Anthropologist; Producer of #140conf “ What I would love to see is for Smart Phone vendors to introduce "DUMB Phone" mode which would turn off all of the data services and texting and just enable the Dumb Phone device to make and receive phone calls (just like "Airplane Mode"). Our lives are just too damn valuable to let someone kill “ themselves because they feel a need to text a friend while driving on the highway.
- 8. “ The emergence of mobile social in 2010 evolves into hyper local need, usage & “ search in 2011. A new era begins in purchasing power. “ Mobile Purchase If 2010 was the year of the mobile social smart phone, 2011 will be the year of hyper growth of the mid-level cost “ Laptop Exception effective exception to the laptop. Marc Meyer Digital Strategist at Ernst and Young
- 9. “ M2M and connected devices is now one of the main drivers behind the growth in mobile subscribers in Europe and North America mobile operators are facing a new market landscape where customers no longer have one or two mobile subscriptions, but up to five or more different wireless devices. In the next 5 years, the total number of M2M wireless M2M connections is forecasted to grow at a 32% CAGR to reach 294.1 million connections in 2015. By that year of the period M2M as a share of the total number of cellular connections is projected to reach 4 % (up from 2% in 2010) In Q1-2011, we expect that AT&T will become “ the first mobile operators to reach 10 million M2M subscribers .
- 10. “ According to ABI Research estimates more than seven trillion SMS messages will be sent “ worldwide, from nearly 4.2 billion mobile subscriptions. IM, MMS to replace SMS “ With more teens owning smart phone devices and with decreasing mobile data cost we expect the text messaging trend to be Dr. Taly Weiss replaced by similar communication behaviors CEO and Head of Research evolving around the mobile web, “ TrendsSpotting Market Research specifically instant messages, social networking and MMS
- 11. Friends on 3d “ By 2015, your mobile phone will project a 3-D image of anyone who “ calls and your laptop will be powered by kinetic energy. Kinetic energy .
- 12. “ Carriers will combine to reach over 100 million consumers with their own location-based marketing programs in 2011, making them a major player. SMS will beat the sexy app “ stereotype as carriers’ preferred method of contacting consumers. “ The comeback of “ Facebook wins the location wars . Apps aim Carriers beyond the check-in for cool factor. Facebook “ Beyond Check-in Companies like Foursquare and Gowalla will “ need to find ways for consumers to connect once inside a location. Alistair Goodman CEO of Placecast
- 13. Peter Kim “ Managing Director, N. America Game over for LBS businesses based on game mechanics. Facebook Places adoption will rise dramatically as integration with the “ at Dachis Group social graph drives greater positive feedback for users from check-ins. “ Social graph LBS platforms will become the Deals “ Sunday newspaper clippings for the 21st century. Passive Jason Falls checkins Social Media Explorer Aaron Strout CMO at Powered “ Probably the biggest shift we will see in the location space is a move from active (user “ conscientiously takes an action) to passive checkins.
- 14. Thomas Husson “ Senior Analyst at Forrester Augmented Reality - for now it is primarily used by brands willing to launch innovative mobile services and in search of a “wow” effect. Mobile AR as the In 2011, expect lots of innovation and "new UI” interest from handset manufacturers, online and social media players, and “ location-based networks such as foursquare, but set realistic expectations!
- 15. “ The growth in mobile shopping will look different than what we have first seen for online shopping: it will be adopted five times faster thanks to consumer openness to engage with the mobile device. Mobile Readiness While Online shopping started to kick Mobile Coupons will trigger growth off with books and travel, Mobile shopping growth will be attributed to mobile apps. Mobile coupons and Dr. Taly Weiss CEO and Head of Research relevant shopping offers, meeting the TrendsSpotting Market Research “ consumer on the go, will fuel the evolution of M-commerce. .
- 16. “ U.S. mobile advertising revenues will grow from $491 million in 2009 to $2.9 billion in 2014, representing a CAGR of 43%. During the forecast period (2009- 2014), BIA/Kelsey expects U.S. mobile search ad revenues to grow from $59 Mobile Search million to $1.6 billion (93 % CAGR); Mobile Display U.S. mobile display ad revenues to grow SMS from $206 million to $803 million (31 % CAGR); U.S. mobile SMS ad revenues to grow “ from $226 million to $562 million (20 % CAGR).
- 17. “ The outlook for 2011 is bullish. Despite continued economic uncertainty, smartphone sales are expected to Increased growth in increase 24.5% next year. However, smartphone sales growth will shrink progressively over the next year course of IDC's five-year forecast period, “ with the market forecast to rise only 13.6% in 2014.
- 18. TrendsSpotting’s Prediction Model Consumers 1. Consumers will carry many devices 2. Africa & Asia markets; the Latino sector 3. Messaging 4. Mobile deals clipping 5. Passive checkins. 6. Readiness to engage with mobile web features Smart phones, mobile web, M2M connections, NFC, AR User Interface, SMS, Technologies LBS, 3D image projections, Kinetic, OS Mobile, Security Strategies Integration wth social graphs, metered mobile data, Mobile web Industries Ads (mobile search / display/ SMS), Banking, Lottery, M-commerce © TrendsSpotting Market Research .
- 19. • Slide 3: ReadWriteWeb, December 2010 Sarah Perez, RWW Staff Predictions. • Slide 4: GigaOm, December 2010 • Slide 5: Juniper Research, December 2010 • Slide 6: Business Insider, December 2010 • Slide 7: Jeff Pulver, December 2010 References • Slide 8: TrendsSpotting Exclusive • Slide 9: Berg Insights, December 2010 • Slide 10: ABI Research December 2010, TrendsSpotting Market Research November 2010 • Slide 11: SFGate, December 2010 • Slide 12: Business Insider, December 2010 • Slide 13: Duchis Group, December 2010 • Slide 14: Forrester Research, December 2010 • Slide 15: TrendsSpotting Market Research • Slide 16: BIA/Kelsey, December 2010 ** • Slide 17: IDC, September 2010 • Slide 18: Trendsspotting Prediction Model, December 2010
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- 22. TrendsSpotting offers Trend consulting, Customized Trend Research Reports & Syndicated Trend Reports, published at top market research databases. TrendsSpotting Research serves leading international brands. TrendsSpotting’s insights are presented at The TrendsSpotting Blog and quoted in the news media . Visit us here: www.trendsspotting.com