Plan B 3.0 CHAPTER 1 - A DIFFERENT WORLD

Chapter 1 - Entering a new world Scientists horrified by glacier melt acceleration In 10 years projected rise in sea levels went from 1.5’ to 6’ by century’s end – 4X UNDERESTIMATE Ice flow speed exceeds anything the scientists imagined Asia’s primary glacier is melting faster than imaginable – could disappear in decades Asia’s glaciers are Asia’s Agricultural Reservoir

Nature is the Timekeeper, and were out of time. shrinking forests expanding deserts falling water tables collapsing fisheries disappearing species rising temperatures Greenland Ice Sheet melt rises see 23’ W. Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rises 19’

33’ Sea level rise – 6oo million refugees - twice US population

Time is up – race between scientific and political tipping points Will Greenland melting become irreversible? Or will we phase out coal power plants fast enough?

There are many environmental tipping points Water is running out world wide Will we stabilize population? Or watch death and wars over water? Demographic trap – Poverty begets population growth and Population growth begets poverty Countries collapse under these unresolved problems – Failing States

Failing States – Early Sign of Failing Civilization Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Chad, Congo, Haiti… List grows Every year Civilization fails after how many states fail?

MASSIVE MARKET FAILURE IS DESTROYING US World bank Economist Nicholas Study MARKET FAILS TO INCORPORATE FOSSIL FUEL ECONOMIC COSTS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MASSIVE HUMAN GROWTH IN LAST CENTURY Enterprise 20 fold Population 4 fold We now exceed the ability of earth to replenish resources

Indirect costs of burning fossil fuel CAN EXCEED THE DIRECT COSTS OF COAL NEGLECTING THESE COSTS UNDERVALUES THE MARKET – ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS SOUND DECISIONS CAN’T BE MADE – MUST KNOW FULL PRICE OF PRODUCT THREATENING CIVILIZATION

MARKET DOES NOT INCORPORATE INDIRECT COSTS – EXTERNALITIES Natures contribution Destruction of the environment Future costs to Future generations

Examples in US Gas price in 2007 $3 / gal ONLY SHOWS PRODUCTION PRICE HIDES HIDES HIDES FULL PRICE – Environmental destruction Military costs Health costs Blood of our soldiers Global / Mid East animosity to US $12 PER GALLON FUTURE COST TO OUR CHILDREN!!! MARKET SAYS IT IS CHEEP!!!!

MUST RESTRUCTURE PAST SYSTEMS MUST INCORPORATE FULL COST TO SOCIETY

EXAMPLE OF HIDING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS 1998 China’s Yangtze River Valley 400 people’s home Worst flooding in history - $30 billion cost Cost exceeded total value of rice harvest CHINA THEN BANNED LOGGING THERE TREES STANDING WORTH 3X TREES CUT – FLOOD CONTROL SERVICES MARKET WAS OFF BY FACTOR OF 3!!!!!!!!!

ENRON – MOST WIDELY LOVED COMPANY 7TH MOST VALUABLE CO IN US 2001 THEN… INDEPENDENT AUDITORS… Co HAD LEFT CERTAIN COSTS OFF THE BOOK ENRON WAS WORTHLESS $90 STOCKS WENT TO PENNEY'S PER SHARE COLLAPSE WAS COMPLETE IT NO LONGER EXISTS

WE’RE DOING WHAT ENRON DID – LEAVING COSTS OFF THE BOOKS IF WE INCORPORATE THE INDIRECT COSTS WE’RE HEADED TOWARD COLLAPSE We need CITIZEN LEADERS!!!!

THE ‘INVISIBLE HAND’ OF THE MARKET IS BLIND TO EXTERNALITIES TREATS MASSIVE SUBSIDIES TO OIL COMPANIES AS IF THEY ARE DESERVED

EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS ALSO GOT IN TROUBLE ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED ECONOMIC COLLAPSE Iceland 600 yrs ago averted collapse by restricting herd size to sustainable levels Samaria BC destroyed itself by destroying its cropland The Mayan civilization destroyed itself by destroying its environment – trees, causing erosion, killing food supply

Humans Extraordinary Growth this last Century… GDP now measured in Trillions, once in Billions 2007 GDP Growth Exceeded ALL of the 1900 economy earth's natural capacities, such as its ability to supply fresh water, forest products, and seafood, have not increased Economy Exponential Growth ECLIPSES now environmental capacity to support it. 1980 WE SURPASSED EARTHS REGENERATIVE CAPACITY! WE’RE NOW SURPASSING SUSTAINABLE YIELDS BY 25%

WE ARE MEETING DEMANDS BY CONSUMING OUR CHILDREN’S RESOURCES

OUR EXISTENCE IS WHOLLY DEPENDED ON EARTH’S NATURAL RESOURCES Climate hospitable for agriculture Hydrological processes for water Geological processes producing soil Forests are shrinking Grasslands turning to desert Pumping underground water depleting available supply

WE ALL DEPEND ON PRODUCTS AND SERVICES OF EARTHS SYSTEMS. Forests Oceans Wetlands

EARTH’S SERVICES INCLUDE… water purification, pollination, carbon sequestration, flood control, soil conservation

15 of 24 major ecosystems being Degraded or Pushed Beyond Limits 40 Yr. Study of Global Eco Systems 1360 scientists ¾ Fisheries collapsing

TIPPING POINT - Were pushing the RAINFOREST TO BURN Rainforests 20% cleared so far Cattle Soybean Farming 22% degraded by road building and forestry Desert will result if they burn Roughly 100 BILLION TONS OF CARBON WILL BE ADDED TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STAYS THERE FOR UP TO 800 YEARS.

Overconsumption is collapsing Global – Forests Fisheries Wells, Water supplies

Resource collapse creates refugees

China proves the EXISTING ECONOMIC MODEL IS SUICIDE China has 4x the population of US China consumes more resources than the US Grain, meat, steel 1/3 more grain Double US meat consumption 3x steel

What if China catches up to US in per capita consumption? Expected by 2030 GLOBAL FORESTS GONE - 2x as much paper as produced worldwide per day 1.1 BILLION CARS – world currently has 860m Needing roads and parking lots equal to their agricultural land area 98 million barrels per day – MORE THAN THE 90M BARRELS PRODUCED TODAY – THE EXPECTED PEAK.

THE WESTERN ECONOMIC MODEL IS DOOM TO US ALL Fossil Fuel Based Auto centric Throw away IF IT WON’T WORK FOR CHINA IT WON’T WORK FOR INDIA India may have bigger population than China Won’t work for 3 billion in developing countries reaching toward middle class

OVERRIDING CHALLENGE FOR OUR GENERATION – BUILD AN ECONOMY BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES Renewable energy Diversified transportation Reuse and recycling of everything WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY DO WE HAVE THE WILL?

Governments collapse when Can’t provide food Can’t provide security Education Health care Lose credibility Lose revenues Societies fragment Wars ensue Nations come to fear warring states Become hotbeds for terrorism and drugs

Failing states – GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY Lack healthcare Become sources of global disease Non-state governments emerge Warlords emerge, Clans Estimated 20-47 failing Countries [insert chart]

State Failure usually causes environmental destruction Deforestation Desertification Soil erosion Shrinkage of cropland and water per person

Deteriorating environmental systems and poverty reinforce each other Donors avoid for security reasons State failure spills over into the region dragging it down Rwanda, Sudan…

Failing states hurts ability to respond to international needs Controlling spread of infectious diseases Maintaining raw material flows Disrupt local economic progress

URGENCY is needed to avoid TIPPING POINTS Shrinking species populations beyond recovery Over-fishing

Social tipping points Single issues or simultaneous multiple threats Economically advanced can handle it, but not underdeveloped Advanced countries controlled AIDS Not the underdeveloped countries 20% or more adults in some countries infected Unsupportable population growth Mideast and Africa 78 million new people per year Growth is in countries least able to support them

Even advanced countries are getting overwhelmed Falling water tables Expected – policy would stabilize aquifers NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS YET DONE SO Cutting carbon is obviously necessary NOT ONE COUNTRY HAS DONE IT YET WILL THIS BE OUR DEMISE AS SALT KILLED SAMARIA? Decline in oil production Only 2 countries are planning for it!!!

These problems can lead to failure of Civilization Analyze the effects of mounting stresses on global systems Food Security is most crucial and revealing

Farmers are failing to keep pace with population growth Falling water tables Converting crop land to other uses Extreme climate events Heat waves Droughts Floods WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION FALLING SHORT OF NEED IN 80% OF THE YEARS NOW 2005-2007 GRAIN PRICES TRIPLED SURPLUS GRAIN SUPPLIES NOW PLUMMETING

US – WORLD’S BREAD BASKET – NOW TURNING GRAIN INTO OIL UP TO 30% OF RECENT CROPS GO TO FUEL DRIVING WORLD GRAIN PRICES TO UNPRECEDENTED HIGHS UNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITY STATES FAILING

STATE FAILURE CAN BE QUICK AND UNEXPECTED ON ENVIRONMENTAL FAILURE CAN DO IT NOW WE HAVE MULTIPLE NOW STATES SO INTERCONNECTED THAT ALL WILL RISE OF FAIL TOGETHER

Plan B shaped what may save Civilization – NOT by Political Correctness Requires attacking on multiple fronts Ending poverty Stabilizing population Restoring earths natural systems Cutting carbon 80% by 2020 Efficiency Renewable sources Scale and speed – must be wartime speed Restructuring of the world economy commensurate with WWII economy restructuring Cars were banned for 3 years

Extraordinary challenge – much hope We have the EXISTING TECHNOLOGY EVERYTHING NEEDED HAS BEEN DONE SOMEWHERE Advanced Wind Towers can equal the energy of an oil well Japanese refrigerators use 12% the power of those a decade ago Today’s hybrid cars – 50 mpg – 50% more efficient

Examples of what is possible Denmark 20% of energy from wind – headed to 60% 60m Europeans get electricity from wind 40m Chinese getting hot water from rooftop heaters Iceland – 90% of homes geothermal heated India using dairy based on crop residue – 4x milk production – world’s biggest milk producer China fish farming – using advanced carp – first country with farm fish exceeding natural – 1/3 of world’s oceanic fish catch

Examples of what is possible South Korea – Reforested to 60% from near zero US – in 20 years reduced soil erosion in vulnerable areas 40% US farmers increased crop yields 20% in 20 years Curitiba, Brazil since 1974 – Population tripled while traffic 30% reduction Amsterdam – advanced urban transport – 30% by bikes Paris transportation diversification headed toward 40% reduction in traffic London uses taxes for traffic reduction

New technologies available permitting new outcomes Plug-in Hybrids plus Wind Farms –DRIVING ON WIND – at ‘$1 a gallon’

THE TIME IS NOW BEFORE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

NEXT 5 CHAPTERS – THE ENVIRONMENTAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES THEN 7 CHAPTERS – ROADMAP OF WHERE WE NEED TO GO AND HOW TO GET THERE WORLD’S IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT WE’VE PUT IN MOTION

PROMISING TRENDS OF THE MID 2000’S HAVE EVAPORATED

Ban the bulb if global could reduce the equivalent of 700 coal fired power plants

IF WE WANT WE CAN CREATE A NEW ECONOMY We could breathe clean air Cities less noisy, polluted, congested, more civilized Expanding forests Falling carbon emission

The challenge of our generation is a renewable economy We all depend on the same grain, same resources Reuse and Recycle Everything Plan A is destroying the economic supports

Plan B Stabilizing Climate Stabilizing Population Eradicating Poverty Restoring Eco Systems

Cut carbon dioxide by 80% by 2020

Climate Initiative Raise efficiency Renewable energy Restore forests

Race between tipping points Phasing out coal plants or do glaciers melt first Can we raise the political will in time Can we stabilize population before too late

Slight hope – Citizens are stopping US coal plants Needs to expand Needs to phase out existing plants

Wind power Scale is expanding Texas is leading the wind farm expansions 23 coal plants equivalent Plug in hybrids now coming to markets We have the technology We need to raise the will

If you don’t study, learn, and spread Plan B 3.0… Why?

Plan B 3.0 CHAPTER 1 - A DIFFERENT WORLD

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Plan B 3.0 CHAPTER 1 - A DIFFERENT WORLD