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Nick Lim Casual Connect CEO Online Social Games Track Sonamine  July 21, 2011 (Revised: DRS, July 28) Beyond Metrics: Predictives With lessons and perspectives from other industries
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Chapter 1 What are predictives?
Predictives help you avoid spamming your players © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Source:  “ Capital One…over 20 credit card offers in 3 weeks” Consumerist July, 2011
From  metrics  (reporting) to  predictions © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Source:  Competing on Analytics Davenport & Harris
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Predictives are not metrics
[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Metric or predictive? (Finance)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary How other industries use predictives
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Chapter 2 How to identify a predictive
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Past  vs.  Future
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Certainty  vs.  Guessing
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Few variables  vs.  Many variables
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Chapter 3  Using Predictives (A Crash Course)
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Behavior Random selection Without predictives, every segment has equal concentration of a future behavior
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Behavior Random selection Predictive Predictives allow segmentations that concentrate the target behavior
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary How do you know it’s working? (First: some terms) 0 100
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary More terminology…
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary How do you know it’s working? Part 2: Lift
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Object for which you’re predicting  (In games: usually the  player ) Score that ranks the players Higher score    player is more likely to behave in a certain way (Examples: convert, churn, buy) What predictive output looks like
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],How to use the predictive score?
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Chapter 4 Myths, Lessons, & Tips
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Myth 1: Predictives require    a data warehouse
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Myth 2: Accuracy is everything
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Tip 1: Plan for multiple, simultaneous,    automated campaigns
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Tip 2: Customize user experiences.    Test and learn
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Chapter 5 Case Studies
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #1:  AT&T Upsell
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Case Study #1:  Conversion Rates
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #2:  Korean Social Game
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #2:  Korean Social Game
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary 63% Higher Case Study #2:  Conversion rates
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #3: Portal/developer of multiplayer casual social games
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #3: Portal/developer of multiplayer casual social games
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #3: Conversion rates (160% higher than  no  promotion)
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary 150% higher Case Study #3: Conversion rates (150% higher than  random  promotion)
[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary Case Study #3: Additional benefits
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary A final note Games as a service will  profit  from  predictive   player relationship management
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary
© 2009-11 Sonamine LLC.  Confidential and proprietary For more about predictives  and Sonamine’s free trial program

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Sonamine casual connect july 2011 beyond metrics - predictives

  • 1. Nick Lim Casual Connect CEO Online Social Games Track Sonamine July 21, 2011 (Revised: DRS, July 28) Beyond Metrics: Predictives With lessons and perspectives from other industries
  • 2.
  • 3. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Chapter 1 What are predictives?
  • 4. Predictives help you avoid spamming your players © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Source: “ Capital One…over 20 credit card offers in 3 weeks” Consumerist July, 2011
  • 5. From metrics (reporting) to predictions © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Source: Competing on Analytics Davenport & Harris
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Chapter 2 How to identify a predictive
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Chapter 3 Using Predictives (A Crash Course)
  • 14. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Behavior Random selection Without predictives, every segment has equal concentration of a future behavior
  • 15. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Behavior Random selection Predictive Predictives allow segmentations that concentrate the target behavior
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Object for which you’re predicting (In games: usually the player ) Score that ranks the players Higher score  player is more likely to behave in a certain way (Examples: convert, churn, buy) What predictive output looks like
  • 20.
  • 21. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Chapter 4 Myths, Lessons, & Tips
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Chapter 5 Case Studies
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Case Study #2: Korean Social Game
  • 30.
  • 31. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary 63% Higher Case Study #2: Conversion rates
  • 32. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Case Study #3: Portal/developer of multiplayer casual social games
  • 33.
  • 34. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary Case Study #3: Conversion rates (160% higher than no promotion)
  • 35. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary 150% higher Case Study #3: Conversion rates (150% higher than random promotion)
  • 36.
  • 37. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary A final note Games as a service will profit from predictive player relationship management
  • 38.
  • 39. © 2009-11 Sonamine LLC. Confidential and proprietary For more about predictives and Sonamine’s free trial program

Editor's Notes

  1. 3 weeks’ worth of CapitalOne credit-card offers! This diagram is taken from a recent blog post on consumerist.com http://consumerist.com/2011/07/capital-one-sends-you-over-20-credit-card-offers-in-3-weeks.html Predictives make sure you don’t get sent mail you don’t want.
  2. Metrics = measuring things. After you measure things, you have to tell people what you measured. Then you can ask questions about what you measured, and you can be notified regarding measured things. This diagram is taken from the popular book Competing on Analytics by Tom Davenport and Jeanne Harris. http://www.amazon.com/Competing-Analytics-New-Science-Winning/dp/1422103323
  3. If that example top decile has 4X lift, it will therefore have 40% of the total player-conversions. For more on lift, including a curve showing the front-loading effect (the cumulative gains) of predictions, and a lift curve: http://www2.cs.uregina.ca/~dbd/cs831/notes/lift_chart/lift_chart.html
  4. True-positive rate = sensitivity False positive rate (α) = FP / (FP + TN) = 1 − specificity False negative rate (β) = FN / (TP + FN) = 1 − sensitivity