SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 11
Download to read offline
Coaching Ability for Fantasy Football from Numbersense by Kaiser Fung
NUMBER
SENSEHOW TO USE BIG DATA
TO YOUR ADVANTAGE
K AISER FUNG
New York Chicago San Francisco Athens London Madrid Mexico City
Milan New Delhi Singapore Sydney Toronto
Contents
Acknowledgments vii
List of Figures ix
Prologue 1
PART 1 SOCIAL DATA 17
1 Why Do Law School Deans
Send Each Other Junk Mail? 19
2 Can a New Statistic Make Us
Less Fat? 54
PART 2 MARKETING DATA 75
3 How Can Sellouts
Ruin a Business? 77
4 Will Personalizing Deals
Save Groupon? 95
5 Why Do Marketers
Send You Mixed Messages? 112
vi CONTENTS
PART 3 ECONOMIC DATA 127
6 Are They New Jobs
If No One Can Apply? 129
7 How Much Did You Pay
for the Eggs? 153
PART 4 SPORTING DATA 173
8 Are You a Better Coach
or Manager? 175
EPILOGUE 201
References 211
Index 219
PART 4
SPORTING DATA
Excerpt from
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Are You a Better Coach
or Manager?
SPORTING DATA 183
3. A First Look at Coaching
Search for “Coach’s Rating” on ESPN.com, and you will be
served a weekly poll asking users to voice their approval or
disapproval of each NFL head coach. In the FFL community,
this style of rating, based on opinion rather than facts, makes
few friends. Jay, Leonard, and many others spare no effort in
their research, covering podcasts, TV shows, real-time chats,
webcasts, Twitter feeds, Facebook messages, and so on. Also
consulted are numerous websites catering to FFL players,
such as ESPN, Yahoo!, Rotoworld.com, and FFtoday.com,
which carry news, statistics, commentary, and projections.
With so much data so easily accessed, why judge subjectively?
Fantasy fans banter about the numbers in the peanut gallery,
or at the negotiating table.
Entering the final week of the 2011 season, Perry and
Jean co-owned the worst record in the league, 3 wins and 9
losses; both were aware that soon there would only be one
team standing—eh, stranded—at the bottom. Jean tinkered
with his lineup: For the two WRs, he had been rotating be-
tween Eric Decker, Julio Jones, and Early Doucet, and he
chose Decker and Doucet; for defense, he selected the New
England Patriots who would be facing the doormat India-
napolis Colts at home, instead of the New York Jets, a unit he
favored in the first half of the season. As usual, Jean started
two QBs, one of whom was Matt Hasselbeck, a 36-year-old
184 NUMBERSENSE
veteran whose mediocre performance in 2011 unnerved Se-
attle Seahawks fans; the other QB was Carson Palmer.
By contrast, Perry activated the identical squad he had
used in the previous three weeks; since he had lost three
straight, this decision reflected either a white flag or a deep
conviction. In the end, inaction brought victory. What doomed
Jean was his unconditional trust in Hasselbeck. Needing only
eight extra points to defeat Perry, if he had activated Jonathan
Stewart as a second running back in place of the off-form Se-
attle QB, he would have won the last round with two points to
spare; as it so happened Perry maxed out his points. Stewart
is a competent back who scares fantasy coaches because he
competes for playing time with several potent running threats
on the Carolina Panthers and so his fantasy value is tied to the
team’s tactics, which vary from week to week. Jean gambled
on Stewart during Week 11 and it paid off; he could have, and
should have taken the same bet in Week 13.
The big idea is looking at what could have been in order
to evaluate what was. Jean lost in Week 13 because he was
outcoached. Perry played his best hand (74 points), but Jean
could have scored 10 more points with just one swap—in fact,
his maximum potential points were 86. (See Figure 8-2.)
In one sense, a good coach is able to pick out the nine
players who would obtain the most fantasy points from the
roster assembled by the manager. We can evaluate any se-
lected squad by comparing it to the optimal squad. The points
total relative to the attainable maximum for a given roster is
what we call Coach’s Rating. In Week 13, Jean was rated 78
percent, indicating his points total reached 78 percent of the
potential; Perry scored a perfect 100, as he could not have
done any better.
4. Another Look at Coaching
Tony, one of the founders of the Tiffany Victoria Memorial
FFL, scored 71 points in Week 3 and 104 points in Week 4.
SPORTING DATA 185
His Coach’s Ratings were in the 70s for both weeks, making
them two of his least effective selections in 2011. This metric
implies that the coach performed equally well in either week
but in fact, Tony activated a truly wretched squad in Week 3.
How do I know? Based on the 14 players he owned, I com-
puted every one of the 256 squads Tony could have fielded in
Week 3: The points totals fell into a tight range between 54
and 99, with the 71-point squad ahead of only 29 percent of
the possibilities. Statistically speaking, 71 points was at the
29th percentile. For comparison, in Week 4, Tony’s lineup
ranked at the 66th percentile, between the worst squad at 59
points and the best at 133.
I call this rating the Coach’s “Prafs” (Percentile rank
among feasible squads). The Coach’s Rating is a serviceable
first approximation, and it’s easier to obtain than the Coach’s
FIGURE 8-2 Jean’s Selected Squad, a Modified Squad, and the
Optimal Squad for Week 13 in the Tiffany Victoria Memorial
Fantasy Football League, 2011–2012: Boxed selections could
have improved the points total.
PosiƟon Selected Squad Modified Squad OpƟmal Squad
QuarterBack Carson Palmer -- same -- -- same --
Running Back Arian Foster -- same -- -- same --
Wide Receiver 1 Eric Decker -- same -- -- same --
Wide Receiver 2 Early Doucet -- same -- Julio Jones
Tight End Ed Dickson -- same -- -- same --
Offense Wild Card MaƩ Hasselbeck Jonathan Stewart Jonathan Stewart
Defense / Special
Teams
Patriots D/ST -- same -- Jets D/ST
Kicker Jason Hanson -- same -- -- same --
Head Coach Packers Coach -- same -- -- same --
Fantasy
Points
67 77 86
186 NUMBERSENSE
Prafs, as it considers only the optimal squad. The Coach’s
Prafs looks at every possible squad, and is thus more telling,
but it requires manipulating much more data.
Since I’ll refer to the Coach’s Prafs throughout the chap-
ter, it helps to define the metric officially:
Prafs is the percentile rank of the activated squad when
compared to the range of points of all possible squads
that can be constructed with the available roster. Its
value is an integer between 0 and 100.
The coach who chooses the worst possible squad gets
nada while the one who selects the optimal squad gets the
maximum Coach’s Prafs of 100. In the Tiffany Victoria Me-
morial FFL, the average weekly Coach’s Prafs was 87 in 2011.
FIGURE 8-3 Coach’s Prafs and Ranking in the Tiffany Victoria
Memorial Fantasy Football League, 2011–2012: Cumulative
Prafs takes values between 0 and 1,300. Five teams (inside the
box) were bunched together when rated by coaching.
Total
Rank by
Points
Total
1380 1 Corey
1297 2 Leonard
1297 3 Jay
1257 4 Harold
1251 5 Bryan
1244 6 Chris
1158 7 Tony
1148 8 Timothy
1116 9 Jean
1114 10 Joe
1112 11 Jeremy
1073 12 Jarrod
1063 13 Stanley
988 14 Perry
Coach’s
Prafs
Rank by
Prafs
Leonard 1214 1
Corey 1208 2
Bryan 1200 3
Chris 1182 4
Jarrod 1157 5
Joe 1157 6
Perry 1148 7
Stanley 1145 8
Jay 1141 9
Timothy 1120 10
Jean 1086 11
Tony 1064 12
Jeremy 1018 13
Harold 984 14
SPORTING DATA 187
Thus, the league-average coach picked a squad that beat 87
percent of feasible squads. That was quite a competitive
league! Jay and I trust this data-driven rating much more
than ESPN’s approval rating.
According to the cumulative Coach’s Prafs, computed as
the sum of weekly Coach’s Prafs, the league’s top coaches in
2011 were Leonard, Corey, Bryan, and Chris while Harold did
rather worse than most. Jay ranked ninth in coaching skill,
but a mere 16 points separated him from the fifth-ranked
Jarrod, as the cumulative Coach’s Prafs of five teams bunched
up at around 1,150.
While defining the Coach’s Prafs, I sneaked in a very im-
portant conditional: The roster decisions are taken out of the
coach’s hands. Like the restaurant critic Bruni, I zoomed in
on how well the chef handled preset ingredients. It’s as if
playing hosts of the popular foodie show Chopped, in which
contestants are challenged with concocting meals out of in-
congruous produce revealed only at game time. In a recent
show, the kitchens gamely cooked up main courses using pea-
nut butter, pork tenderloin, okra, and canned shrimp. Fixing
the ingredients allows us to separate the effect of coaching/
cooking from that of managing/shopping. We next turn our
attention to managerial acumen.
Copyright © 2013 by Kaiser Fung. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United
States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in
any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written
permission of the publisher.
ISBN: 978-0-07-179967-6
MHID: 0-07-179967-2
The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN: 978-0-07-179966-9,
MHID: 0-07-179966-4.
All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol
after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to
the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where
such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps.
McGraw-Hill Education eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums
and sales promotions or for use in corporate training programs. To contact a representative,
please visit the Contact Us page at www.mhprofessional.com.
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the
subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher
is engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other
expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
—From a Declaration of Principles Jointly Adopted by a Committee of the
American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
TERMS OF USE
This is a copyrighted work and McGraw-Hill Education and its licensors reserve
all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as
permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of
the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create
derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the
work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill Education’s prior consent. You may use the work for
your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your
right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms.
THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS.” McGRAW-HILL EDUCATION AND
ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE
ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED
FROM USINGTHEWORK, INCLUDINGANYINFORMATIONTHATCAN BEACCESSED
THROUGHTHEWORKVIAHYPERLINKOROTHERWISE,ANDEXPRESSLYDISCLAIM
ANYWARRANTY,EXPRESSORIMPLIED,INCLUDINGBUTNOTLIMITEDTOIMPLIED
WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
McGraw-Hill Education and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the
functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be
uninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill Education nor its licensors shall be liable
to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work
or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hill Education has no responsibility for the
contentofanyinformationaccessedthroughthework.UndernocircumstancesshallMcGraw-Hill
Education and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive,
consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even
if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability
shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort
or otherwise.

More Related Content

Similar to Coaching Ability for Fantasy Football from Numbersense by Kaiser Fung

139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt
139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt
139554657-sports-writing-ppt.pptHarleyLaus1
 
Performance Analysis NFL 2014
Performance Analysis NFL 2014Performance Analysis NFL 2014
Performance Analysis NFL 2014Roshik Ganesan
 
WageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletes
WageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletesWageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletes
WageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletesGeorge Ulloa
 
Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...
Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...
Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...Abby Johnson
 
Descriptive Essay On Baseball
Descriptive Essay On BaseballDescriptive Essay On Baseball
Descriptive Essay On BaseballAmy Moore
 
Athletes Vs Pro Sports Players
Athletes Vs Pro Sports PlayersAthletes Vs Pro Sports Players
Athletes Vs Pro Sports PlayersAnne Marie
 
Thesis comp
Thesis compThesis comp
Thesis compcig4life
 
7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics
7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics
7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports AnalyticsTableau Software
 
A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...
A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...
A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...Shannon Green
 
Sports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data Science
Sports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data ScienceSports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data Science
Sports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data ScienceKonstantinos Pelechrinis
 
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports Analytics
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports AnalyticsLoras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports Analytics
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports AnalyticsCartegraph
 
Ranking Number 3 Research Paper
Ranking Number 3 Research PaperRanking Number 3 Research Paper
Ranking Number 3 Research PaperHolly Vega
 
Measuring team performance with Polls
Measuring team performance with PollsMeasuring team performance with Polls
Measuring team performance with PollsPeter Rainey
 
The Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport Organization
The Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport OrganizationThe Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport Organization
The Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport OrganizationApril Lacey
 

Similar to Coaching Ability for Fantasy Football from Numbersense by Kaiser Fung (20)

139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt
139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt
139554657-sports-writing-ppt.ppt
 
Performance Analysis NFL 2014
Performance Analysis NFL 2014Performance Analysis NFL 2014
Performance Analysis NFL 2014
 
Green Bay Case Study
Green Bay Case StudyGreen Bay Case Study
Green Bay Case Study
 
WageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletes
WageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletesWageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletes
WageDiscriminationAmongstNFLAthletes
 
Lineup Efficiency
Lineup EfficiencyLineup Efficiency
Lineup Efficiency
 
Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...
Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...
Vegans Are People Who Shun All Animal Products From Their...
 
Descriptive Essay On Baseball
Descriptive Essay On BaseballDescriptive Essay On Baseball
Descriptive Essay On Baseball
 
Sports writing
Sports writingSports writing
Sports writing
 
Athletes Vs Pro Sports Players
Athletes Vs Pro Sports PlayersAthletes Vs Pro Sports Players
Athletes Vs Pro Sports Players
 
SPORTS AND RECREATION
SPORTS AND RECREATIONSPORTS AND RECREATION
SPORTS AND RECREATION
 
Thesis comp
Thesis compThesis comp
Thesis comp
 
Fpyc FootballChange
Fpyc FootballChangeFpyc FootballChange
Fpyc FootballChange
 
7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics
7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics
7 Ways Sports Teams Win With Sports Analytics
 
A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...
A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...
A Hybrid Constraint Programming And Enumeration Approach For Solving NHL Play...
 
Sports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data Science
Sports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data ScienceSports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data Science
Sports Analytics in the Era of Big Data and Data Science
 
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports Analytics
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports AnalyticsLoras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports Analytics
Loras College 2014 Business Analytics Symposium | Dan Conway: Sports Analytics
 
BASKETBALL PLAYBOOK 2
BASKETBALL PLAYBOOK 2BASKETBALL PLAYBOOK 2
BASKETBALL PLAYBOOK 2
 
Ranking Number 3 Research Paper
Ranking Number 3 Research PaperRanking Number 3 Research Paper
Ranking Number 3 Research Paper
 
Measuring team performance with Polls
Measuring team performance with PollsMeasuring team performance with Polls
Measuring team performance with Polls
 
The Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport Organization
The Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport OrganizationThe Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport Organization
The Ethics Of The Byu Idaho Sport Organization
 

More from McGraw-Hill Professional

Building Long-Term Value in a Short-Term World
Building Long-Term Value in a Short-Term WorldBuilding Long-Term Value in a Short-Term World
Building Long-Term Value in a Short-Term WorldMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
What Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick Wartzman
What Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick WartzmanWhat Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick Wartzman
What Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick WartzmanMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
The Present and Future of High Frequency Trading
The Present and Future of High Frequency TradingThe Present and Future of High Frequency Trading
The Present and Future of High Frequency TradingMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
The Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal Art
The Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal ArtThe Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal Art
The Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal ArtMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
Applied Social Ecology Innovation & Change
Applied Social Ecology Innovation & ChangeApplied Social Ecology Innovation & Change
Applied Social Ecology Innovation & ChangeMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
Social Ecology and the Practice of Management
Social Ecology and the Practice of ManagementSocial Ecology and the Practice of Management
Social Ecology and the Practice of ManagementMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
Federalism and the Distribution of Power and Authority
Federalism and the Distribution of Power and AuthorityFederalism and the Distribution of Power and Authority
Federalism and the Distribution of Power and AuthorityMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
Contributions of Management as a Liberal Art Practice
Contributions of Management as a Liberal Art PracticeContributions of Management as a Liberal Art Practice
Contributions of Management as a Liberal Art PracticeMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
Management and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two Worlds
Management and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two WorldsManagement and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two Worlds
Management and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two WorldsMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
Management's Origins as a Study Within the Liberal
Management's Origins as a Study Within the LiberalManagement's Origins as a Study Within the Liberal
Management's Origins as a Study Within the LiberalMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New Economy
How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New EconomyHow to Make Money in Real Estate in the New Economy
How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New EconomyMcGraw-Hill Professional
 
The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1
The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1 The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1
The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1 McGraw-Hill Professional
 

More from McGraw-Hill Professional (20)

The Tasti D-Lite Way
The Tasti D-Lite WayThe Tasti D-Lite Way
The Tasti D-Lite Way
 
Building Long-Term Value in a Short-Term World
Building Long-Term Value in a Short-Term WorldBuilding Long-Term Value in a Short-Term World
Building Long-Term Value in a Short-Term World
 
What Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick Wartzman
What Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick WartzmanWhat Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick Wartzman
What Would Drucker Do Now? by Rick Wartzman
 
Saving Capitalism from Short-Termism
Saving Capitalism from Short-TermismSaving Capitalism from Short-Termism
Saving Capitalism from Short-Termism
 
The Present and Future of High Frequency Trading
The Present and Future of High Frequency TradingThe Present and Future of High Frequency Trading
The Present and Future of High Frequency Trading
 
The Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal Art
The Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal ArtThe Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal Art
The Human Dimension and Management as a Liberal Art
 
Applied Social Ecology Innovation & Change
Applied Social Ecology Innovation & ChangeApplied Social Ecology Innovation & Change
Applied Social Ecology Innovation & Change
 
Social Ecology and the Practice of Management
Social Ecology and the Practice of ManagementSocial Ecology and the Practice of Management
Social Ecology and the Practice of Management
 
Effective Leadership as a Liberal Art
Effective Leadership as a Liberal ArtEffective Leadership as a Liberal Art
Effective Leadership as a Liberal Art
 
Federalism and the Distribution of Power and Authority
Federalism and the Distribution of Power and AuthorityFederalism and the Distribution of Power and Authority
Federalism and the Distribution of Power and Authority
 
Contributions of Management as a Liberal Art Practice
Contributions of Management as a Liberal Art PracticeContributions of Management as a Liberal Art Practice
Contributions of Management as a Liberal Art Practice
 
Management and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two Worlds
Management and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two WorldsManagement and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two Worlds
Management and Liberal Arts Traditions Bridging the Two Worlds
 
Management's Origins as a Study Within the Liberal
Management's Origins as a Study Within the LiberalManagement's Origins as a Study Within the Liberal
Management's Origins as a Study Within the Liberal
 
Capturing New Markets by Stephen Wunker
Capturing New Markets by Stephen WunkerCapturing New Markets by Stephen Wunker
Capturing New Markets by Stephen Wunker
 
The Optimization Edge by Steve Sashihara
The Optimization Edge by Steve SashiharaThe Optimization Edge by Steve Sashihara
The Optimization Edge by Steve Sashihara
 
The Splicing Handbook, Chapter 15
The Splicing Handbook, Chapter 15The Splicing Handbook, Chapter 15
The Splicing Handbook, Chapter 15
 
How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New Economy
How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New EconomyHow to Make Money in Real Estate in the New Economy
How to Make Money in Real Estate in the New Economy
 
The Splicing Handbook-Chapter 1
The Splicing Handbook-Chapter 1The Splicing Handbook-Chapter 1
The Splicing Handbook-Chapter 1
 
The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1
The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1 The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1
The Disassembly Line: Balancing and Modeling / Chapter 1
 
Boatbuilding Manual - Chapter 2
Boatbuilding Manual - Chapter 2Boatbuilding Manual - Chapter 2
Boatbuilding Manual - Chapter 2
 

Recently uploaded

AI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace Applications
AI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace ApplicationsAI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace Applications
AI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace ApplicationsStella Lee
 
The OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita Anand
The OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita AnandThe OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita Anand
The OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita AnandDr. Sarita Anand
 
The First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdf
The First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdfThe First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdf
The First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdfdogden2
 
Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024
Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024
Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024bsellato
 
Pharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdf
Pharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdfPharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdf
Pharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdfSumit Tiwari
 
Quantitative research methodology and survey design
Quantitative research methodology and survey designQuantitative research methodology and survey design
Quantitative research methodology and survey designBalelaBoru
 
3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx
3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx
3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptxmary850239
 
Metabolism of lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptx
Metabolism of  lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptxMetabolism of  lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptx
Metabolism of lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptxDr. Santhosh Kumar. N
 
BBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptx
BBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptxBBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptx
BBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptxProf. Kanchan Kumari
 
Plant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptx
Plant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptxPlant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptx
Plant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptxHimansu10
 
DLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYS
DLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYSDLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYS
DLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYSTeacherNicaPrintable
 
PHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdf
PHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdfPHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdf
PHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdfSumit Tiwari
 
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx
3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx
3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptxmary850239
 
3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx
3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx
3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptxmary850239
 
25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...
25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...
25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...Nguyen Thanh Tu Collection
 
30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc
30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc
30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.docdieu18
 
EDD8524 The Future of Educational Leader
EDD8524 The Future of Educational LeaderEDD8524 The Future of Educational Leader
EDD8524 The Future of Educational LeaderDr. Bruce A. Johnson
 

Recently uploaded (20)

AI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace Applications
AI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace ApplicationsAI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace Applications
AI Uses and Misuses: Academic and Workplace Applications
 
The OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita Anand
The OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita AnandThe OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita Anand
The OERs: Transforming Education for Sustainable Future by Dr. Sarita Anand
 
ANOVA Parametric test: Biostatics and Research Methodology
ANOVA Parametric test: Biostatics and Research MethodologyANOVA Parametric test: Biostatics and Research Methodology
ANOVA Parametric test: Biostatics and Research Methodology
 
The First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdf
The First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdfThe First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdf
The First National K12 TUG March 6 2024.pdf
 
Least Significance Difference:Biostatics and Research Methodology
Least Significance Difference:Biostatics and Research MethodologyLeast Significance Difference:Biostatics and Research Methodology
Least Significance Difference:Biostatics and Research Methodology
 
Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024
Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024
Awards Presentation 2024 - March 12 2024
 
Pharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdf
Pharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdfPharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdf
Pharmacology chapter No 7 full notes.pdf
 
Quantitative research methodology and survey design
Quantitative research methodology and survey designQuantitative research methodology and survey design
Quantitative research methodology and survey design
 
3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx
3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx
3.12.24 Freedom Summer in Mississippi.pptx
 
Metabolism of lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptx
Metabolism of  lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptxMetabolism of  lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptx
Metabolism of lipoproteins & its disorders(Chylomicron & VLDL & LDL).pptx
 
BBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptx
BBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptxBBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptx
BBA 205 BE UNIT 2 economic systems prof dr kanchan.pptx
 
Plant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptx
Plant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptxPlant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptx
Plant Tissue culture., Plasticity, Totipotency, pptx
 
DLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYS
DLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYSDLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYS
DLL Catch Up Friday March 22.docx CATCH UP FRIDAYS
 
PHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdf
PHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdfPHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdf
PHARMACOGNOSY CHAPTER NO 5 CARMINATIVES AND G.pdf
 
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...
BÀI TẬP BỔ TRỢ TIẾNG ANH 11 THEO ĐƠN VỊ BÀI HỌC - CẢ NĂM - CÓ FILE NGHE (FRIE...
 
3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx
3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx
3.14.24 The Selma March and the Voting Rights Act.pptx
 
3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx
3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx
3.12.24 The Social Construction of Gender.pptx
 
25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...
25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...
25 CHUYÊN ĐỀ ÔN THI TỐT NGHIỆP THPT 2023 – BÀI TẬP PHÁT TRIỂN TỪ ĐỀ MINH HỌA...
 
30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc
30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc
30-de-thi-vao-lop-10-mon-tieng-anh-co-dap-an.doc
 
EDD8524 The Future of Educational Leader
EDD8524 The Future of Educational LeaderEDD8524 The Future of Educational Leader
EDD8524 The Future of Educational Leader
 

Coaching Ability for Fantasy Football from Numbersense by Kaiser Fung

  • 2. NUMBER SENSEHOW TO USE BIG DATA TO YOUR ADVANTAGE K AISER FUNG New York Chicago San Francisco Athens London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi Singapore Sydney Toronto
  • 3. Contents Acknowledgments vii List of Figures ix Prologue 1 PART 1 SOCIAL DATA 17 1 Why Do Law School Deans Send Each Other Junk Mail? 19 2 Can a New Statistic Make Us Less Fat? 54 PART 2 MARKETING DATA 75 3 How Can Sellouts Ruin a Business? 77 4 Will Personalizing Deals Save Groupon? 95 5 Why Do Marketers Send You Mixed Messages? 112
  • 4. vi CONTENTS PART 3 ECONOMIC DATA 127 6 Are They New Jobs If No One Can Apply? 129 7 How Much Did You Pay for the Eggs? 153 PART 4 SPORTING DATA 173 8 Are You a Better Coach or Manager? 175 EPILOGUE 201 References 211 Index 219
  • 5. PART 4 SPORTING DATA Excerpt from 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Are You a Better Coach or Manager?
  • 6. SPORTING DATA 183 3. A First Look at Coaching Search for “Coach’s Rating” on ESPN.com, and you will be served a weekly poll asking users to voice their approval or disapproval of each NFL head coach. In the FFL community, this style of rating, based on opinion rather than facts, makes few friends. Jay, Leonard, and many others spare no effort in their research, covering podcasts, TV shows, real-time chats, webcasts, Twitter feeds, Facebook messages, and so on. Also consulted are numerous websites catering to FFL players, such as ESPN, Yahoo!, Rotoworld.com, and FFtoday.com, which carry news, statistics, commentary, and projections. With so much data so easily accessed, why judge subjectively? Fantasy fans banter about the numbers in the peanut gallery, or at the negotiating table. Entering the final week of the 2011 season, Perry and Jean co-owned the worst record in the league, 3 wins and 9 losses; both were aware that soon there would only be one team standing—eh, stranded—at the bottom. Jean tinkered with his lineup: For the two WRs, he had been rotating be- tween Eric Decker, Julio Jones, and Early Doucet, and he chose Decker and Doucet; for defense, he selected the New England Patriots who would be facing the doormat India- napolis Colts at home, instead of the New York Jets, a unit he favored in the first half of the season. As usual, Jean started two QBs, one of whom was Matt Hasselbeck, a 36-year-old
  • 7. 184 NUMBERSENSE veteran whose mediocre performance in 2011 unnerved Se- attle Seahawks fans; the other QB was Carson Palmer. By contrast, Perry activated the identical squad he had used in the previous three weeks; since he had lost three straight, this decision reflected either a white flag or a deep conviction. In the end, inaction brought victory. What doomed Jean was his unconditional trust in Hasselbeck. Needing only eight extra points to defeat Perry, if he had activated Jonathan Stewart as a second running back in place of the off-form Se- attle QB, he would have won the last round with two points to spare; as it so happened Perry maxed out his points. Stewart is a competent back who scares fantasy coaches because he competes for playing time with several potent running threats on the Carolina Panthers and so his fantasy value is tied to the team’s tactics, which vary from week to week. Jean gambled on Stewart during Week 11 and it paid off; he could have, and should have taken the same bet in Week 13. The big idea is looking at what could have been in order to evaluate what was. Jean lost in Week 13 because he was outcoached. Perry played his best hand (74 points), but Jean could have scored 10 more points with just one swap—in fact, his maximum potential points were 86. (See Figure 8-2.) In one sense, a good coach is able to pick out the nine players who would obtain the most fantasy points from the roster assembled by the manager. We can evaluate any se- lected squad by comparing it to the optimal squad. The points total relative to the attainable maximum for a given roster is what we call Coach’s Rating. In Week 13, Jean was rated 78 percent, indicating his points total reached 78 percent of the potential; Perry scored a perfect 100, as he could not have done any better. 4. Another Look at Coaching Tony, one of the founders of the Tiffany Victoria Memorial FFL, scored 71 points in Week 3 and 104 points in Week 4.
  • 8. SPORTING DATA 185 His Coach’s Ratings were in the 70s for both weeks, making them two of his least effective selections in 2011. This metric implies that the coach performed equally well in either week but in fact, Tony activated a truly wretched squad in Week 3. How do I know? Based on the 14 players he owned, I com- puted every one of the 256 squads Tony could have fielded in Week 3: The points totals fell into a tight range between 54 and 99, with the 71-point squad ahead of only 29 percent of the possibilities. Statistically speaking, 71 points was at the 29th percentile. For comparison, in Week 4, Tony’s lineup ranked at the 66th percentile, between the worst squad at 59 points and the best at 133. I call this rating the Coach’s “Prafs” (Percentile rank among feasible squads). The Coach’s Rating is a serviceable first approximation, and it’s easier to obtain than the Coach’s FIGURE 8-2 Jean’s Selected Squad, a Modified Squad, and the Optimal Squad for Week 13 in the Tiffany Victoria Memorial Fantasy Football League, 2011–2012: Boxed selections could have improved the points total. PosiƟon Selected Squad Modified Squad OpƟmal Squad QuarterBack Carson Palmer -- same -- -- same -- Running Back Arian Foster -- same -- -- same -- Wide Receiver 1 Eric Decker -- same -- -- same -- Wide Receiver 2 Early Doucet -- same -- Julio Jones Tight End Ed Dickson -- same -- -- same -- Offense Wild Card MaƩ Hasselbeck Jonathan Stewart Jonathan Stewart Defense / Special Teams Patriots D/ST -- same -- Jets D/ST Kicker Jason Hanson -- same -- -- same -- Head Coach Packers Coach -- same -- -- same -- Fantasy Points 67 77 86
  • 9. 186 NUMBERSENSE Prafs, as it considers only the optimal squad. The Coach’s Prafs looks at every possible squad, and is thus more telling, but it requires manipulating much more data. Since I’ll refer to the Coach’s Prafs throughout the chap- ter, it helps to define the metric officially: Prafs is the percentile rank of the activated squad when compared to the range of points of all possible squads that can be constructed with the available roster. Its value is an integer between 0 and 100. The coach who chooses the worst possible squad gets nada while the one who selects the optimal squad gets the maximum Coach’s Prafs of 100. In the Tiffany Victoria Me- morial FFL, the average weekly Coach’s Prafs was 87 in 2011. FIGURE 8-3 Coach’s Prafs and Ranking in the Tiffany Victoria Memorial Fantasy Football League, 2011–2012: Cumulative Prafs takes values between 0 and 1,300. Five teams (inside the box) were bunched together when rated by coaching. Total Rank by Points Total 1380 1 Corey 1297 2 Leonard 1297 3 Jay 1257 4 Harold 1251 5 Bryan 1244 6 Chris 1158 7 Tony 1148 8 Timothy 1116 9 Jean 1114 10 Joe 1112 11 Jeremy 1073 12 Jarrod 1063 13 Stanley 988 14 Perry Coach’s Prafs Rank by Prafs Leonard 1214 1 Corey 1208 2 Bryan 1200 3 Chris 1182 4 Jarrod 1157 5 Joe 1157 6 Perry 1148 7 Stanley 1145 8 Jay 1141 9 Timothy 1120 10 Jean 1086 11 Tony 1064 12 Jeremy 1018 13 Harold 984 14
  • 10. SPORTING DATA 187 Thus, the league-average coach picked a squad that beat 87 percent of feasible squads. That was quite a competitive league! Jay and I trust this data-driven rating much more than ESPN’s approval rating. According to the cumulative Coach’s Prafs, computed as the sum of weekly Coach’s Prafs, the league’s top coaches in 2011 were Leonard, Corey, Bryan, and Chris while Harold did rather worse than most. Jay ranked ninth in coaching skill, but a mere 16 points separated him from the fifth-ranked Jarrod, as the cumulative Coach’s Prafs of five teams bunched up at around 1,150. While defining the Coach’s Prafs, I sneaked in a very im- portant conditional: The roster decisions are taken out of the coach’s hands. Like the restaurant critic Bruni, I zoomed in on how well the chef handled preset ingredients. It’s as if playing hosts of the popular foodie show Chopped, in which contestants are challenged with concocting meals out of in- congruous produce revealed only at game time. In a recent show, the kitchens gamely cooked up main courses using pea- nut butter, pork tenderloin, okra, and canned shrimp. Fixing the ingredients allows us to separate the effect of coaching/ cooking from that of managing/shopping. We next turn our attention to managerial acumen.
  • 11. Copyright © 2013 by Kaiser Fung. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. ISBN: 978-0-07-179967-6 MHID: 0-07-179967-2 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN: 978-0-07-179966-9, MHID: 0-07-179966-4. All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill Education eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions or for use in corporate training programs. To contact a representative, please visit the Contact Us page at www.mhprofessional.com. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. —From a Declaration of Principles Jointly Adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and McGraw-Hill Education and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill Education’s prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms. THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS.” McGRAW-HILL EDUCATION AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USINGTHEWORK, INCLUDINGANYINFORMATIONTHATCAN BEACCESSED THROUGHTHEWORKVIAHYPERLINKOROTHERWISE,ANDEXPRESSLYDISCLAIM ANYWARRANTY,EXPRESSORIMPLIED,INCLUDINGBUTNOTLIMITEDTOIMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill Education and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill Education nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hill Education has no responsibility for the contentofanyinformationaccessedthroughthework.UndernocircumstancesshallMcGraw-Hill Education and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise.